Closed Door of Official Climate Science

Closing the fiery door of St. Elmo

Free of Doubt

It is the certainty of climate science that justified their existence. It explained their feelings of superiority over those in the free enterprise sector who fund their lifestyles. They thrilled in the pure absoluteness of AGW theory, a belief that all life on Earth was imperiled by America and the wealth and greed of capitalism which is causing global warming. AGW affirmed the correctness of their choice of a life spent in Western academia. They were now masters of nature. Their vision represented justice: it is they who were engaged in serving humanity, saving humanity. They were accomplishing more than all the theologians and philosophers throughout human history and proving secular, socialism was the true path. The new order they would bring to the world with taxes to the ever-green bureaucracy, would be be paid by those Americans who caused the problem: all of them who worked in the evil capitalist economy.

Climate science has been thrown into disarray by the hiatus, disagreement between climate model and instrumental estimates of climate sensitivity, uncertainties in carbon uptake by plants, and diverging interpretations of ocean heating… ‘Certainty’ arguably peaked…  [and] perception of uncertainty is arguably greater than [at] any time… Yes of course we know more about the climate system than we did in 1991, but more knowledge about the complex climate systems opens up new areas of ignorance and greater uncertainty. ~Judith Curry

Science and all personal overcoming of superstition and ignorance is based on the liberty to question reality and in continually testing our conclusions about what we think we know against what we see and learn and accept as to what we cannot know. Certainty of the future is the ultimate slavery to existence. The dead are free of doubt and the global warming alarmists had none. “At the same time,” says, Garth Paltridge (Quadrant Online, ‘Climate Change’s Inherent Uncertainties’), “the average man in the street, a sensible chap who by now can smell the signs of an oversold environmental campaign from miles away, is beginning to suspect that it is politics rather than science which is driving the issue.”

Nature is not the slave of the Left. Answers don’t come so easily: nature still has her secrets; but, they won’t be found by those who are blinded by their own certainty. Answers to tough questions will not be handed over to scientists who have traded in their curiosity to become politicians and lawyers for the Left.

They know their desired outcome at the outset, so they gather arguments to support it. While it would be unethical for scientists reporting on their work to omit findings that don’t fit their hypotheses, lawyers are under no compunction to introduce evidence that hurts their cases… Perhaps the knottiest problem, though, has been deciding what scientific evidence or testimony should be considered in the first place. ~Cornelia Dean (When questions of science come to a courtroom)

Academia has done all it can to make it easy on itself at our expense. We’re the problem! We must stop generating CO2 to satisfy our wants and needs because that is what pleases them. Rather than assist those who pay their salaries Academia would rather assist the Leftist politicians who are eager to tell us what we must do next. Oh, how they have it all figured out: get rid of our technology. We all must start over but most of all, whatever we do, we must have their approval because, they’re in charge of the climate.

Somewhere along the line it came to be believed by many of the public, and indeed by many of the scientists themselves, that climate researchers were the equivalent of knights on white steeds fighting a great battle against the forces of evil—evil, that is, in the shape of “big oil” and its supposedly unlimited money. The delusion was more than a little attractive. ~Garth Paltridge (Ibid.)

What global warming has taught us is that no one in academia is very important. In the aggregate, however, wielding a consensus of opinion that is useful to the maintenance of the Left – against all of the rest of us who put food in their mouths – they are a force against individual liberty that we must now reckon with.

Global warming has been a war by the Left on the free enterprise system that brought us modernity. The Left is dragging us down like a stone; and, they’re taking with them our liberty to work for our own best interest. There is a lot we do not understand and much we will never understand. Even so, Mother Nature is telling us that giving up our liberty to government-funded school teachers and looking to government to make decisions over our lives has never been a good idea.

In the light of all this, we have at least to consider the possibility that the scientific establishment behind the global warming issue has been drawn into the trap of seriously overstating the climate problem—or, what is much the same thing, of seriously understating the uncertainties associated with the climate problem—in its effort to promote the cause. It is a particularly nasty trap in the context of science, because it risks destroying, perhaps for centuries to come, the unique and hard-won reputation for honesty which is the basis of society’s respect for scientific endeavor. ~Garth Paltridge (Ibid.)

Postmodern science envisages a sort of political nirvana in which scientific theory and results can be consciously and legitimately man­ipulated to suit either the dictates of political correctness or the politics of the government of the day. ~Garth Paltridge

 

 

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Politics and Al Gore, Minister of Global Warming

Al Gore Nobel Namasté

Minister of Unified Earth

It was essentially the taking over of government by a new means of control over the masses that animated the spirit of global warming in the conceited mind of Al Gore. A political outcome in Florida was, however, not a part of Gore’s plan.

He changed the plan after being denied the Presidency of America by George Bush. Gore decided instead to satisfy himself with simply burning down the country. In the same way that WWII-era German citizens turned their backs on the plight of the Jews (as so many refuse today to condemn Muslim anti-Semitism), the silence of academia concerning Al Gore’s use of science to spread anti-capitalism and anti-Americanism has been the most chilling response of all.

The mystical powers of the one element, CO2, and the force this one idea has on the scientifically weak minds of Leftist global warming alarmists , really does make this one element, the One. Let Us Pray… Let’s see what joyful bards will someday herald as humanity’s seminal triumph. About what heroics will the gushing poets pen their sonnets? America’s Minister of Hotism, of course. Let Us Pray…

In order to solve the climate crisis, we have to solve the democracy crisis, and we have one. There is a bridge between the climate crisis and the crisis of extreme poverty in our world. We have to find a unified Earth theory. The struggles of climate change and extreme poverty and disease are connected to the problems of overconsumption, wastefulness, and economic transformation. We have to approach this as a unified challenge… Sometimes I hear people respond to the disturbing facts of the climate crisis by saying “this is so terrible, what a burden.” Let’s reframe that: how many generations in all of human history have had the opportunity to rise to a challenge that is worthy of our best efforts, a challenge that can pull from us more that we knew we could to. We ought to approach this challenge with a sense of profound joy and gratitude that we are the generation that 1000 years from now, orchestras and poets and singers will celebrate by saying: they were the ones that found within themselves to solve this crisis and lay the basis for a bright and optimistic human future. ~Al Gore

For this the Eurocommies gave Minister Gore a Nobel. Your biggest challenge is not hurting yourself with laughter. On his bridge to nowhere, Gore speaks from his Ivory tower about extreme poverty as if the everyday poverty of people around the world who already suffer from too little energy is not reality. The economic transformation for which Minister Gore opines is unified Earth under a centralized European-style secular socialist government, as he blames the practice of capitalism by a wasteful and over-consuming free people as the cause of, climate change and extreme poverty and disease.

I know that most men, including those at ease with problems of the greatest complexity, can seldom accept even the simplest and most obvious truth if it be such as would oblige them to admit the falsity of conclusions which they have delighted in explaining to colleagues, which they have proudly taught to others, and which they have woven, thread by thread, into the fabric of their lives. ~Leo Tolstoy

The global warming alarmists have become smear artists not scientists. Arrogance is what drives the believers of this new faith and what animates the politics of personal destruction against all who are legitimately skeptical of the real motives underlying the Left’s climate science. The followers of Minister Gore – the commie behind the red curtain – are hypocritical and embittered old hippies who have had the American society and culture in their crosshairs for a long time. Minister Gore’s unified Earth begins with destroying science and civil discourse in its pogrom against capitalism and America.

In a world teetering on the edge of economic chaos with a huge population highly dependent on a healthy economy and severe winters not seen since the Little Ice Age, the ongoing obsession with global warming and decarbonisation is surreal. Every day government deficits grow larger. Even with a 100% tax on income, the U.S. government would still be in deficit. Most state governments and many municipalities there are operating in serious and growing deficit. Already the first municipal defaults have occurred. In the EU bankruptcy looms over various member states. ~Walter Starck (2-Jan-2011)

You know global warming is a scam when scientists who shared in the Eurocommie glory of the award of a Nobel to the UN’s IPCC are admitting official government-approved climate science jumped the shark. Facts are facts: increases in atmospheric CO2 follow global warming, they’re not the cause of it. Dr. Lucka Kajfež Bogataj, for example, cannot ignore the ice core proxy data: “A detailed comparison of temperature data and the quantity of carbon dioxide captured in the ice shows, that sometimes it warmed up first and then the concentration of carbon dioxide increased, and sometimes vice versa, but on average the temperature changed first and some 700 years later a change in aerial content of carbon dioxide followed.”

The dysfunctional nature of the climate sciences is nothing short of a scandal. Science is too important for our society to be misused in the way it has been done within the Climate Science Community… [It] has actively suppressed research results presented by researchers that do not comply with the dogma of the IPCC. ~Dr. Hans Jelbring (climatologist, Stockholm University)

Al Gore is actually the minister of a corrupt climate establishment. Who is the global warming alarmist? He is all emotional appeals, connotative analogies, theoretical concepts, lacking in disciplined thinking and without benefit of the scientific method. We can say the same mutatis mutandis of all who are fearful of scientifically testing their illusions. The climate establishment persistently derides with ad hominem attacks all who have the temerity to challenge its religious beliefs and superstitions by scientifically testing the hypothesis that humanity’s CO2 is the cause of global warming.

I guess if you don’t have any real arguments
against my article [WSJ link], you can always criticize me
for the company I keep
. ~Judith Curry

“Why does the climate establishment,” asks Dr. David Evans (Is the Western Climate Establishment Corrupt?), “persist in measuring the official temperature record from thermometers that are nearly all too close to artificial sources of heat? What motive could there be, other than to inflate official temperatures? Why have we only found out about it because volunteers went out and photographed the official thermometers?”

Only 1000 stations have records of 100 years and almost all of them are in heavily populated areas of northeastern US or Western Europe and subject to urban heat island effect. ~Dr. Tim Ball

 

(Updated 20 October 2014)
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Important Message from Mother Nature

AGW Suspended-Energy Rules!

What Consensus?

Let’s not wait for the next ice age to face the facts. “What happens if global temperatures actually decline,” asks David Archibald (Chairman Mao’s Time Bomb), “a possibility that must be considered, given the lack of solar activity and the mercury’s refusal to rise?”

Don’t look now, but maybe a scientific consensus exists concerning global warming after all. Only 36 percent of geoscientists and engineers believe that humans are creating a global warming crisis, according to a survey reported in the peer-reviewed Organization Studies. By contrast, a strong majority of the 1,077 respondents believe that nature is the primary cause of recent global warming and/or that future global warming will not be a very serious problem… Two recent surveys of meteorologists (summarized here and here) revealed similar skepticism of alarmist global warming claims. (James Taylor, ‘Peer-Reviewed Survey Finds Majority Of Scientists Skeptical Of Global Warming Crisis,’ Forbes)

How did we come to this anyway? A lot of serious thinkers tried to tell us academia never really had actual scientific evidence to back up anything they said about global warming and also that the Democrat party was engaging in nothing more than a hoax to scare the public. Global warming has been a Left vs. right issue so it was never a matter of science from the get-go and yet voters continued to return climate hoaxsters to public office. The Left’s scare tactics worked.

“The real scientific method [not, the so called 97% consensus] would have them [scientists] throw out the theory [AGW] and come up with a new one. But the fat cats in government, industry, environmental groups and universities that have benefited from this public scare would have too much too lose… We will pay the price this winter.” ~Joseph D’Aleo

Why did they do it? D’Aleo says they had, too much to lose. Lose what, money? There must be more to it than money to explain the eagerness of academia to stab America in the back and say nothing as the Left lied to the people. “I am often asked,” says Roy Spencer (2010), “So, are you saying there is a conspiracy here?” Spencer says there was no conspiracy, “because the ultimate goals were not a secret. Just a bunch of elitists carrying out plans that the politicians supported – with continuing promises of congressional funding for research that those politicians knew would support Job #1 of government – to stay needed by the people. Many of the scientists involved are just along for a ride on the gravy train. Even I ride that train. The elitism clearly shows through in the behavior of those who speak out publically on the need for humanity to change its Earth-destroying ways: Al Gore, James Cameron, Harrison Ford, Julia Roberts, RFK, Jr.”

The Left does all it can to create panic and sow seeds of mistrust and discontent –e.g., George Bush caused Katrina, death by Ebola in Texas is Rick Perry’s fault, America and capitalism caused global warming (and is killing the polar bears). They say these things because voters who put Barack Obama in the White house for two terms – some of whom are still attending Democrat fund-raisers for Obama at $32,000 a head in places like Hollywood and NY – so badly want to believe America is the cause of all the world’s problems. Let’s face facts: we’re talking about the majority of America’s voters. We’re talking about voters who must hate themselves because they are mainstream America now and they elect those who tell them exactly what they want to hear.

I understand it is important for Hollywood liberals to believe the productive are destroying the globe: they know they’re better than you and me and have no problem voting for those who are eager to tell us what to do. As for the rest we can only assume the Greatest Generation sowed a sack of seeds but let the garden go to weed like Jews building greenhouses in Gaza but instead of tomatoes blooming, scuds rain down.

The weeds believe phasing out fossil fuel power plants and covering energy shortfalls by paying businesses not to produce and purchasing French nuclear power is a smart UK energy plan. If things don’t go as planned the workaround is for the UK’s elderly to burn books if they want to stay warm this winter.

…this coming winter, the gap between peak demand and peak generation will be small. By next winter, the gap will be as little as four per cent… [and] the risk of shortfalls is substantial. However, the lights are unlikely to go out in our homes thanks to a series of emergency measures, which include the ability to bring mothballed coal and gas plants back online, and paying companies to not use electricity – a facility for which National Grid will have to pay those firms fairly handsomely. Moreover, the UK government is investing in more connectors with continental Europe so that shortfalls can be made up with French nuclear power… ~Spiked

Is it politically incorrect to notice that the Left is destroying the country? “[Frank] Furedi’s memories of Canada in the 1960s are of having a nice time as a member of the Far Left — until he realized his red-raggin’ pals had no problem with state interventions in people’s lives. They couldn’t handle the notion that democracy and freedom are non-negotiable.” Why is it politically incorrect to observe that Western academia has for years knowingly abetted the inciting of panic by the Left about global warming?

The government climate scientists had fantastic successes creating something from nothing when they used the idea of a greenhouse as a metaphor for global warming caused by humanity’s release of CO2. They looked on with glee as their idea turned into two ideas: an allegory about capitalism destroying the Earth and an analogy about all life on Earth as like a dog in a car with the windows rolled up. What we’ve learned is that when it comes to metaphor-making, the 2nd law of thermodynamics violates Leftist thinking.

Shall we continue to fear global warming alarmism when we know it does not exist. What will our future look like if a cooler world, “in response to lower solar activity,” is as Archibald observes, more than just a possibility?

China is one of the few countries taking food security seriously. Official policy is that the grain necessary to keep China’s population fed should be grown within its borders. Beijing maintains a grain reserve of 200 million to 300 million tonnes, although its exact size is a state secret… China can feed itself at the moment. But that achievement has to be looked at in the context that the world is currently enjoying the most benign conditions for agriculture for over 800 years. ~David Archibald, Chairman Mao’s Time Bomb

Is it politically incorrect to notice that AGW is Left vs. right science? “[Frank] Furedi was asked to compare current Western censorship with that of Communist-era Hungary, where he spent his childhood,” says Tony Thomas (‘Free Speech and the Fight to Save It,’ Quadrant Online). “Stalinist censorship was easier to deal with, he replied, because everyone knew the score and could see through the official lies.”

Never was there a dogma more calculated to foster indolence,
and to blunt the keen edge of curiosity.
~Charles Lyell,
Principles of Geology (London, 1833)

 

 

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Socio-Economics of Global Warming Paralysis

Forecast

Have you ever been diagnosed
with any similar generalized anxiety disorder?

Fed monetary policy may be to lower the cost of money to zero and run the printing presses until the cows come home; but, what have you done for me lately? When you’re living on someone else’s money and continue to refuse what works there is only one option left: wait for the house of cards to collapse.

Socialist governments traditionally do make a financial mess. They always run out of other people’s money. It’s quite a characteristic of them. ~Margaret Thatcher

Because China has become a better place to do business than the US it is easy to forget that China is a communist country. China is liberalizing economic freedom because the communist government realized it cannot provide for its people. At the same time, the US government is limiting economic freedom here at home because the Left fears individual liberty and free market capitalism.

To the religious fervor of liberal fascists simply add a pinch of government science to the heavy-handed Leftist politics that stokes the flames of global warming and reheat until yet another helping of socialist despotism is ready to be shoved down the folks’ throats. The use of global warming as a political tool to consolidate federal power over the states and the people demands that we live in fear.

Paralyzed by fear of adverse consequence. ~Gen. Jack Keane (Ret.)

The, Daily Mail Reporter (2 January 2013) asked the important question: What global warming? Alaska is headed for an ice age as scientists report state’s steady temperature decline:

– Since 2000, temperatures in Alaska have dropped by 2.4 degrees Fahrenheit

– Scientists reviewed weather reports from 20 climate stations operated by the National Weather Service located across Alaska

– 19 of the 20 weather stations reported falling temperatures

– An ocean phenomenon has disrupted a storm regulating system thus allowing cold winter storms to linger longer and bring a deep chill

– Local residents have noticed the colder temps but say its no big deal since they are already bundled up for 20-below zero temperatures (Ibid.)

This presents a problem for global warming alarmists. The global warming that occurred before 1940 accounts for 70% of all of the warming that has occurred since the LIA (about 1850). If we adjust for the amount of global warming since then that has been ferreted out of the temperature records in the coldest and most inhospitable regions on Earth — such as in the dry air of the Arctic or Siberia where going from a -50°C to a -40°C at one small spot on the globe is extrapolated across tens of thousands of miles and then branded as global warming — there has been no significant global warming in the US since the 1940s. They could use a little warming in Siberia; but. that’s not going to happen if Alaska is freezing over, right?

…there is now a trendless interval of 19 years duration at the end of the HadCRUT4 surface temperature series, and of 16 – 26 years in the  lower troposphere. ~Ross R. McKitrick

The real cost to society of global warming alarmism is finally beginning to hit home, hard, and not only in lost opportunities. Just as did the founders of the nation, we also may face the challenges of life during a period of global cooling that could last for decades.

In the present state of climate science affairs, essentially what we have is what once was considered a plausible hypothesis is now seen as junk science that has been propped up by secular, socialist government funding with one simple goal: create an economic crisis using the politics of fear. Leftist planning can be understood by their bringing on Al Gore at what they considered to be a critical time in history to solidify the global warming hoax. The only thing that could not be anticipated and for which there was no workaround was the election of George Bush and his antipathy to global warming alarmism and refusal to sign the Kyoto treaty during his eight-year term of office; and, he was right to be skeptical of global climate models.

A growing body of evidence suggests that the climate is less sensitive to increases in carbon-dioxide emissions than policy makers generally assume—and that the need for reductions in such emissions is less urgent… The warming hiatus, combined with assessments that the climate-model sensitivities are too high, raises serious questions as to whether the climate-model projections of 21st century temperatures are fit for making public policy decisions. ~Judith Curry

The only thing left for the Left to do was damage the economy by some other means and to do their best to create a financial crisis, which began with the collapse of the housing bubble. By then, of course, time had run out for the True Believers of global warming alarmism. The folks were lied to but have caught on to the attempted sting operation being carried out by the Left. Many of the liars have since become skeptics as we approach the next election cycle.

The government science authoritarians of global warming have been left exposed and stinking like a ‘trout in the milk.’ This summary of the conception and birth and maybe death of the global warming hoax does not have an easy ending: the consequences of the damage done to the country and society lie ahead. “Our paper  is not an outlier.” says Judith Curry. “More than a dozen other observation-based studies have found climate sensitivity values lower than those determined using global climate models, including recent papers published in Environmentrics (2012), Nature Geoscience (2013) and Earth Systems Dynamics (2014).”

With all of the hysteria, all of the fear, all of the phony science, could it be that man-made global warming is the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people? ~James Inhofe (2003)

 

 

 

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I don’t care where we are so long as I know where we are

El Patio
Ignorance Threatens Even When It Seems to Yield

Most of the world lives in a manner reflecting the fact that for them energy is a scarce commodity. In the West many people on the Left don’t appreciate the fact that the culture they rail against for consuming too much energy is what allows them to take energy for granted. “Considering that satellite measurements show that global mean temperatures have been flat over at least the past 18 years,” says Larry Bell (Newsmax), “perhaps leaders of energy-starved African and other Third World populations might… address more urgent pollution and energy issues… 2.8 billion people worldwide must heat and cook with smoky open fires fueled by animal dung, wood, charcoal or coal.”

We cannot get beyond the obvious fact that global warming is a Left versus right issue; and, that means AGW – the theory that modern man and most especially America and free enterprise capitalism caused global warming – is political and not a scientific issue. Skeptics are not comfortable knowing that a belief in AGW theory represents a celebration of abandoning the scientific method (because, there is no evidence) as if that simple fact has no societal implications at all beyond the global warming debate.

The evidence [humanity's CO2 causes global warming] must of course be empirical, meaning that it is independent of theory.

Typical Alarmist Offerings of “Evidence” Polar Bears, Glaciers, Arctic Melt, Antarctic Ice Shelves, Storms, Droughts, Fires, Malaria, Snow Melt on Mt Kilimanjaro, Rising Sea Levels, Ocean Warming, Urban Heat Island Effect

Although each of these issues may say something about whether or not global warming is or was occurring, none of them say anything about the causes of global warming. It would make no difference to these issues if the recent global warming was caused by CO2 or by aliens heating the planet with ray guns. ~Dr. David Evans (There is No Evidence, July 6, 2009)

All too often the most simple things are unfathomable. If we cannot believe that we will believe anything; and, we’d all be as irrelevant as the IPCC that sees the hand of man behind every change in the climate. Now we’re in a hiatus of reason because academia predicted global warming due to humanity’s release of CO2 into the atmosphere but the heat has been missing for 16, 19 or 26 years, depending on how the pause in global warming is measured. And, we have a lot of empirical evidence suggesting climate change has always happened without humanity’s help. These facts just add more questions to the many we already have for which no one has the answer –e.g.,

•  What if the missing heat is just no€™t there?
•  What about temperature predictions of climatologists?
•  If the lost heat simply does not exist is the AGW hypothesis false?
•  And, if AGW theory is all wrong what about climate change?
•  Instead of global warming could the lack of warming continue?
•  Will there be a cooling trend… for decades?
•  Is the Earth heading for a redux of an overdue ice age?
•  What about the observational evidence about the Sun?
•  Has it not been anomalously quiet?
•  Was in not previously the most active in 3000 years?
•  Does humanity have a rendezvous with a date made in heaven?
•  Is Nature bringing more warming or cooling?
•  Will Nature flirt with the likes of a snowball Earth?
•  Will the next ice age be the last, for 90,000 years?
•  Are we born only to pursue knowledge?
•  Are we destined to act in ignorance?
•  Is that Nature knocking on the door?
•  What if we’ll never know?

Where are we when it comes to understanding the nature of climate change –e.g., if it ever happened before it’ll probably happen again. If David Evans says climate will change no matter what we do, then he must understand the dynamics of climate because that is what it does: it changes. “Is California,” asks Bob Tisdale, “prepared for a drought that lasts multiple decades or even centuries?” It has happened before, Pacific coast ENSO-inspired (El Nino and La Nina) periods of drought.

The only logical and the principled thing is to take note of it and plan for it. Engage in preparedness. But instead, The Left’s monomaniacal obsession with CO2 of human origin is blinding us to real dangers that we can and should do something about. Using the logic of global warming alarmists we all must hold our breath because each breath we take brings us closer to our last. The Left is turning the precautionary principle on its head.

Now I hate to make you think about bad news. But if it’s happened in the past… Why weren’t west-coast [California] residents warned 10 or 15 years ago that a severe drought is just a weather anomaly away? Why aren’t there enough desalinization plants in place to supplement rainfall deficits? Why are the people of the west coast protesting for, and why are state governments funding, more wind farms and solar arrays when they need something more basic to maintain life there, water? ~Bob Tisdale

The real cost to society of global warming alarmism is finally beginning to hit home, hard. Fear of global warming makes people do stupid things and not do the smart thing. “Poor planning on the parts of a few – based on politically motivated, unsound science – may make for emergencies for millions.” ~Bob Tisdale

 

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Scientists Flee Global Warming Hoax & Scare Tactics

Chaos Look

More Defectors Now See the Calm after the Storm

The shrill diatribe coming from the eco-whako establishment is beginning to lose its steam. Condescending talking-points from the Left’s sycophant stable of global warming delusionists have become less effective at marginalizing the voices of reason from their own side of the political divide. The real truth about climate change is finally beginning to emerge from the climate horsehit that academia has been piling on since Kyoto.

Despite the statements of numerous scientific societies, the scientific community cannot claim any special expertise in addressing issues related to humanity’s deepest goals and values… Any serious discussion of the changing climate must begin by acknowledging not only the scientific certainties but also the uncertainties, especially in projecting the future. ~Dr. Steven Koonin

Listening to the latest wave of the Leftist climate change defectors, all of the alarm about global warming is now gone. Gone is the message of impending doom whether we act or not (especially appealing to those whose yearnings for damnation demand a lot of company). Gone too is the certainty that human CO2 will ever have a disastrous influence over Earth’s future climate.

“The idea that Climate science is settled,” says Steven Koonin, “runs through today’s popular and policy discussions. Unfortunately, that claim is misguided.”  The Left’s problem with Koonin is not the message but the messenger who must now be branded, “denier.” The computational physicist credentials of Koonin who served as a professor and provost at Caltech, nor being green and a fan of renewables, are in question. Rather, his DOE job as undersecretary of science in the Obama administration lands Koonin squarely in the camp of Leftist global warming defectors −e.g., a voice of reason that’s not easily silenced and will be reckoned with by all but Democrat partisan extremists who will do whatever they can to suppress skepticism and legitimate climate science.

What the Left is forced to recon with in responding to scientists like Koonin is not what he suggests we do given what we know. The danger to the Left is that Koonin’s understanding of reality is credible, comprehensible and sensible albeit totally out of step with the air of certainty and urgency that all on the Left have tried for years to cultivate by knowingly providing false, incomplete, misleading and sometimes simply made-up facts and information to create public alarm.

In a nutshell, Koonin shares beliefs most all of us already have. “The crucial scientific question for policy isn’t whether the climate is changing,” says Koonin. “That is a settled matter: The climate has always changed and always will. Geological and historical records show the occurrence of major climate shifts, sometimes over only a few decades.” The IPCC’s adoption of Michael Mann’s hockey stick science was an unscientific denial of this most basic fact.

The defining element of the global warming hoax has always been the pretense that enlightened governments acting through the auspices of the UN under moral authority of Western science, can and should throttle-back modernity to prevent future climate change. Who shall decide our individual fate – government scientists on cell phones in ivory towers, sporting laptops and clouds full of phony data and pushing an evergreen buttload of public-funded research proposals about saving the Earth from human depredation?

Computer modeling of complex systems is as much an art as a science… global climate models describe the Earth on a grid that is currently limited by computer capabilities to a resolution of no finer than 60 miles… But processes such as cloud formation, turbulence and rain all happen on much smaller scales. These critical processes then appear in the model only through adjustable assumptions that specify, for example, how the average cloud cover depends on a grid box’s average temperature and humidity. In a given model, dozens of such assumptions must be adjusted (“tuned,” in the jargon of modelers)… For the latest IPCC report (September 2013), its Working Group I, which focuses on physical science, uses an ensemble of some 55 different models. Although most of these models are tuned to reproduce the gross features of the Earth’s climate, the marked differences in their details and projections reflect all of the limitations that I have described…  The models differ in their descriptions of the past century’s global average surface temperature by more than three times the entire warming recorded during that time. Such mismatches are also present in many other basic climate factors, including rainfall, which is fundamental to the atmosphere’s energy balance. As a result, the models give widely varying descriptions of the climate’s inner workings. Since they disagree so markedly, no more than one of them can be right. ~Steven Koonin, WSJ, Climate Science Is Not Settled

The clinker is, we’re just not that big a deal. The left refers to CO2 as a poison or a climate pollutant to make humanity’s contribution to the ecosphere nothing more than a big and dirty activity that nature is powerless to deal with. The Left demands that we must assume that, human influences could have serious consequences for the climate, whereas  Koonin says, “they are physically small in relation to the climate system as a whole,” even when looking down the road 100 years.

For example, human additions to carbon dioxide in the atmosphere by the middle of the 21st century are expected to directly shift the atmosphere’s natural greenhouse effect by only 1% to 2%. Since the climate system is highly variable on its own, that smallness sets a very high bar for confidently projecting the consequences of human influences. (Koonin, Ibid.)

Not through all of human history has anything changed for humanity. The American experiment of recognizing that individual liberty is a human right granted by God not government is a philosophical outlier of political science. It all comes back to us as it always has in the form of one simple question: “Who decides our individual fates? How much of our future is influenced by our exercise of free will? Humanity’s destiny has been the subject of controversy since the beginning of history.” ~Frank Furedi, The Australian, (Fear is key to irresponsibility)

 

 

 

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Government-Sponsered Global Warming Alarmism

Climate Classroom

Is It Workplace Violence?

The religion of global warming has colored government bureaucracy like a wave. But, what came first, a wave or a motive? Is the wave merely phenomenal, like water running downhill, or the product of motive like the passion of causes to which reason is but a slave?

Here’s an example of the propaganda that government school teachers are  shoveling down empty-headed skulls:

You hear a lot about climate change. Maybe you hear that it’s controversial. But it’s not among scientists. Expert scientists agree that climate change is happening and it’s caused by human activity. This map shows how much warmer the decade 2000 to 2009 was compared with the 1951 to 1980 average. (See, example CK-12.org lesson plan)

If you want to know the sort of preaching that passes for Climate Change science in public classrooms, hold your breath and follow along as if you too are a faithful member of this new cult known as global warming. The following is an adaptation of CK-12.org information about global warming, as follows:

The IPCC’s (The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 2013 report was  2200 pages by more than 200 expert scientists and they say that warming is unequivocal. The media may say there has been a pause in global warming but there was no pause. Levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have not been this high for 800,000 years. Scientists are now 95% to 100% certain that humans are causing global warming. The future will see more frequent temperature extremes, mostly of heat, less of cold. Physical evidence of climate change has been measured through looking at Arctic temperatures which are increasing…

Let’s compare what we’re seeing take place in classrooms to the norms of impartial and non-partisan scientific behavior that should be expected of academia. The IPCC, for example, showcased Michael Mann’s hockey stick (MBH98, 99) in its reports to create alarm about global warming. The IPCC knew Mann’s work was fraudulent. As scientists who have been attacked by him can attest, Mann has violated every scientific standard of conduct while academia simply stood by him in silent approval. Judith Curry details some of Mann’s violations, as follows:

(1) Attempts to thwart M&M [statisticians Stephen McIntyre & Ross McKitrick] in their efforts to reproduce MBH98, 99… (2) Helping Phil Jones et al. figure out how to circumvent FOIA requests [CRUgate]… (3) Attempts to dismiss M&M’s 2004 publication because McIntyre was a shill for fossil fuels… (4) Attacking the person not the argument:  calling me denier, anti-science, serial climate misinformer… (5) Advocacy related to his area of expertise [violating the Mertonian norm of disinterestedness –i.e., scientists should disengage their interests from their actions and judgments]… While there is considerable debate about the appropriate roles and responsibilities of scientists regarding advocacy, I will say this. If you choose to be an advocate, and you engage in skullduggery such as #1-#4, your advocacy will amplify the public concern over #1-#4. ~Judith Curry

What is going on in today’s classrooms goes beyond propaganda; and, it’s more than condoning fraud and verbal assaults: it’s harassment, intimidation and indoctrination. Climatism represents a danger to the safety of all in society who refuse to adopt the anti-capitalism and anti-Americanism embodied in the global warming credo of those on Left who have genuine socio-political and ideological interests at stake in the acceptance of global warming that have nothing to do with an average climate of the globe.

I have criticized his involvement in Hiding the Decline, and also his violations of the norms of what I regard as appropriate behavior by scientists…  5 years ago, defending Michael Mann against his attackers was regarded by many scientists as defending climate science.  At this point, I am not seeing many climate scientists standing up for Michael Mann, owing to his violations of the norms, unless they are extreme partisans. ~Judith Curry (Ibid.)

Why an atheist radio station would want to interview the prophet of a millenarial cult like Mannatollah Mike is a mystery to me. ~Mark Steyn (Mann is an island)

 

 

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Winter Comes as Sun Sets over Global Warming

At Joe's

Heading into Solar Cycle 25
as Global Warming Freezes Over

Reports from New York about renewed UN-support for carbon pricing — like a perfect storm — sounds like a community of nations gathering to recognize the healing effects of ritual blood-letting, only… when it comes to carbon pricing by government fiat, society’s productive are the ritual oxen whose blood is being let. Drained of our vitality by Leftist witchdoctors of the Left, what future can we make for ourselves? On the one hand the Left now recognizes the power of price signals that, affect the hundreds of millions of decisions, that take place in a dynamic marketplace. On the other hand, the Left fears a free people who are not restricted from making decisions over their own lives.

What if the perfect storm is coming and the current global warming hiatus is its herald: and, it is a solar quietus? Consider this: It’s official: Solar minimum has arrived [March 10, 2006]. Sunspots have all but vanished. Solar flares are nonexistent. The sun is utterly quiet (Science@NASA: ‘Solar Storm Warning’). Solar Cycle 23 went out with an alarming whimper. Then came Solar Cycle 24:  Something is up with the sun… “I would say it is the weakest in 200 years,” said [NASA's] David Hathaway (Robt. Lee Hotz, WSJ: ‘Strange Doings on the Sun’).

Despite this resurgence of activity, Cycle 24 still remains a weak cycle—the smallest since Cycle 14. What will happen next?  Stay tuned! ~The Old Farmer’s Almanac

Source: David Hathaway’s, Long Range Solar Forecast (see Science@NASA, below)

Now we’re headed into Solar Cycle 25, after the sun has just recently undergone, one of its oddest magnetic reversals on record… the sun’s magnetic poles are out of sync… Several solar scientists speculated that the sun may be returning to a more relaxed state after an era of unusually high activity that started in the 1940s (Hotz, ibid.). Perhaps we will come to understand what solar quiescence means: Solar Cycle 25 peaking around 2022 could be one of the weakest in centuries (Science@NASA: ‘Long Range Solar Forecast’). Compared to the past, what if solar activity will for a while be as still as a butterfly’s wing? What might the repercussions be for the future of a civilization if we fear global warming more than cooling when possibly a rapid cooling is on the way?

Global warming (i.e., the warming since 1977) is over. The minute increase of anthropogenic CO2 in the atmosphere (0.008%) was not the cause of the warming—it was a continuation of natural cycles that occurred over the past 500 years.

The PDO [Pacific Decadal Oscillation] cool mode has replaced the warm mode in the Pacific Ocean, virtually assuring us of about 30 years of global cooling, perhaps much deeper than the global cooling from about 1945 to 1977. Just how much cooler the global climate will be during this cool cycle is uncertain. Recent solar changes suggest that it could be fairly severe, perhaps more like the 1880 to 1915 cool cycle than the more moderate 1945-1977 cool cycle. A more drastic cooling, similar to that during the Dalton and Maunder minimums, could plunge the Earth into another Little Ice Age, but only time will tell if that is likely. (Prof. Don J. Easterbrook, ‘Global Cooling is Here,’ Global Research, 2008)

Who trusts the competence of frenzied government scientists about there being a lot warmer climate in our future that we must do something about, especially when there is ample reason to question their motives and competence? Apparently, the most skeptical and questioning among us perceived a lack of warming long before the climatologists of global warming alarmism admitted we’ve actually been in a warming hiatus for years. There’s a price to be paid for such lack of candor. When there is a dispute over the facts, we’ve come to learn someone isn’t just mistaken: they’re probably lying. We’re all pretty sure by now that all of the fears of the global warming alarmists are at the expense of the cold truth.

Round all the corners, pound into place
and everything fits, in the grand scheme of things,

given enough time and space.

 

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EPA War on CO2 is Federal Insanity

Dear President Obama letter from 15 Governors-Excerpt

Republican Governors Oppose Fed’s
 Use of the EPA to Choke Off Capitalism

Are we looking at an example of cause and effect? We don’t need the scientific method to know that fear of global warming is a Left vs. right issue. Do we, however, just write off the relationship of party affiliation and political ideology as simply enigmatic, and fail to see the real causes underlying attacks on America from jihadists to climatists? A copy of the Sept. 9, 2014 letter excerpted above can be viewed HERE, e.g., as follows:

“Given your Administration’s opposition to make use of the Yucca Mountain repository, will you bring forward a viable, long-term solution for [nuclear waste] disposal that would win public support and the necessary votes in Congress? … If not, does your Administration expect the states with bans on new nuclear facilities [California, Connecticut, Illinois, Kentucky, Maine, New Jersey, Oregon, West Virginia, and Wisconsin] to revise their laws, despite the federal government’s failure to adequately address the waste issue?” (See, ibid.)

The Left warned us that stress- and anxiety-caused mental illness and even cancer will be brought about by human CO2-caused higher ambient temperatures and catastrophic weather conditions. What we’re learning is that the Left already has gone insane just worrying about global warming. This is propaganda week in NY – for the latest, running of the libs – brought to you by the UN and sponsored by Western academia. “In the midst of the ‘mad crowd’ in New York City attending the People’s Climate March,” says Judith Curry, “sober people are trying to figure out ways to broaden the policy debate on climate change.” The sober-minded among us cannot ignore the fact that in attempting to avoid a hypothetical climate disaster the Left is actively engaged in bringing about economic disaster. The 15 Republican governors have some real issues with the EPA’s proposed Clean Power Plan, as follows:

Has the federal government conducted an analysis to determine the environmental impact of building renewable energy systems at the scale envisioned in the proposal? For example, one nuclear plant producing 1,800 MWs of electricity occupies about 1,100 acres, while wind turbines producing the same amount of electricity would require hundreds of thousands of acres. If such an analysis exists, please provide detailed information related to that analysis. If such an analysis does not exist, please explain why the analysis was not performed. (Ibid.)

The Left and the UN believed their computer-generated hockey stick – depicting the ominous blade of global warming spiking up from the long flat handle of a history of a supposedly stable prior global climate – was their silver bullet. In reality, academia has accomplished nothing more than the reinvention of the square wheel. The Earth’s prior history is a record of ups and downs–e.g.,

However, during the last 16-26 years since the alarm about human-CO2 was raised there has been no global warming, none whatsoever. “The whole concept behind IPCC,”  says Lennart Bengtsson, “is basically wrong.” Meanwhile, the Left is fighting what it feels is wrong with wrong-headed socio-economic policies, based on climate science that is demonstrably wrong, all while ignoring wrongs in the world that we could do something about if not driven over an economic cliff. The insanity of the Left’s plans have not gone unnoticed, as follows:

Given the amount of land required by renewable energy systems, has your Administration considered that federal land permitting requirements may preclude or stall the development of renewable projects? Also, expanding the deployment of wind and solar farms could readily conflict with the Endangered Species Act (ESA). Indeed, one can easily envision the plausible scenario whereby the ESA, operating as federal law separate from the CAA, could prevent state compliance with EPA’s emissions targets. How does your Administration propose to avoid these conflicts? (Ibid.)

The global warming debate is way past the use of the Left’s hockey stick by the US-hating UN-IPCC and the Eurocommies. It’s about the facilitators of the lie by entrenched bureaucracies: an entitled climate research establishment; government education and environmental lobbies; and, by Democrat politicians. Acting together these special interests and socio-political ideologues have done far more than radical Islam could ever do to subvert all of the lofty ideals of Americanism. “When it comes to the public’s right to demand answers of empire-building bureaucrats,” observed Roger Franklin (Quadrant), “we may have lost a little ground over the past century or so.” Has the Left truly given enough attention to the devastating consequences of the alternative they propose–e.g.,

Has the Administration mapped out a transition pathway for renewables from an artificial to a competitive market? Specifically, what is the federal plan to commercialize storage technology, which is necessary for that transition? (Ibid.)

What about the rest of the world? They understand the benefits of free enterprise even if they do not subscribe to the American ideal of the individual’s God-given right to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. They see things their way and their plan is to use more energy to create more not less economic wealth–e.g.,

China may achieve its goal of reducing the carbon intensity of its economy (the ratio of carbon dioxide emissions per unit of output) by 45 percent below its 2005 level by 2020. But the country is growing so fast that its coal consumption and greenhouse gas emissions are expected to continue to increase. China is expected to add the equivalent of a new 500-megawatt coal-fired electric plant every 10 days for the next decade, according to projections by the United States government. ~Robert Stavins, ‘Climate Realities,’ NYT

 The EPA concedes that following the proposed rules would have no more than  a negligible effect at most on climate change and the amount of atmospheric CO2. But, the compliance costs and disruption to the economy could be huge. Will global warming continue to be a plank in the Democrat platform when it’s obvious AGW isn’t about CO2 and the climate but really about the Left’s belief capitalism is a disease?

 

 

 

 

 

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The Fantasy of Climatism

Nino-El-SUD-CAGW

Climatology Run Amok

If you’re worried about where we’re headed you ought to see where we’ve been. It’s hard to remember a time before the actions of the EU–i.e., their use of the UN to incite countries around the world to join together for the purpose of blaming America and SUV-driving soccer moms for causing global warming over the last half of the 20th century. But, writing in Science News in the 70s at a time the EU was busily pumping up its doomed Euro-Communist economic bubble, John Douglas captured the concerns of many about the globe’s imminent descent into an ice age – not a period of global warming – as follows:

What if we are entering a period of degenerating weather–even a new ice age? How much would it really affect daily life? A look at the historical record is not encouraging. On the one hand, the great civilizations of Rome, Egypt and China developed during relatively warm, agriculturally beneficial climatic epochs; on the other hand, drought and famine drove the original Greeks to settle in the Hellenic Peninsula and later to band together in the great city-states that marked the height of their civilization. John Wilkinson of the Center for the Study of Democratic Institutions believes the Renaissance and Industrial Revolution may also have resulted in part as a response to the challenge of the Little Ice Age. But civilizations that were overpopulated or could not migrate or adapt were not so lucky. Failure of monsoons like those seen in the last couple of years destroyed the great Indus Empire of northwestern India in 1600 B.C. Conditions like those in the Sahel today have destroyed several past civilizations there, including the once powerful and overpopulated Mali Empire with its famed capital of Timbuktu. Some 300 million to 400 million people now live in areas undergoing monsoon retreat, according to outspoken climatologist Reid A. Bryson, and the options for such people to migrate or adapt, of course, are minimal.

Even for the most highly industrialized countries a significant change in the climate could strain all available resources, possibly leading to wars of conquest on the one hand, or extremely expensive adaptation, such as climate domes, on the other. Present-day New Yorkers would hardly consider it an advantage to be able to drive across the harbor to Staten Island. ~John H. Douglas, ‘Climate Change: Chilling Possibilities, Science News, Vol. 107 (March 1975)

The thoughtful among us back then speculated about what periods of global cooling had wrought upon all the great civilizations: Rome, Egypt, China. The role of changing climates on civilization is certainly a topic worth studying and over the years some funding was devoted to climate research. Then, something happened: fears about global cooling were forgotten and new fears about human-caused (anthropogenic) global warming (i.e., AGW) emerged. More research dollars began to flow, the climate research establishment was born and climatologists were hatched and swarmed from the woodpile like ants.

There are actually very few people formally trained at the doctoral level in this field [climate science]… prior to the specter of anthropogenerated climate change, there wasn’t very much money from the federal government. It was about a $50 million a year operation, if that much… Now the federal outlay is $2.3 billion. Guess what: we’re all climate scientists now. So ecologists, plant biologists, and even psychologists hitched their wagons to this gravy train. Today’s shocker: we don’t have enough research dough. ~Dr. Patrick Michaels

After years of global warming, that was followed the last 16-26 years of no warming (depending on source of the data being analyzed), some of the old thinking coming from the intelligentsia of earlier times is beginning a return to fashion. Like old ties and gaudy tattoos what seemed unthinkable before is now au courant. Solar astrophysicists now see the possibility of global cooling that may last for decades. After recently discovering that Alpine glaciers advance and recede on a regular basis without any help from humanity, Christian Schlüchter recognizes the real problem today: “many scientist are servants of politicians and are not concerned with knowledge and data.” And, as in the 1975 article above, Schlüchter also wonders about whether today’s, “complex and spoiled society” may face circumstances that, “brought the Roman Empire to collapse.”

…you don’t need to be a trained climatologist to smell danger when someone says, Anthropogenic greenhouse gasses are warming the planet, so we need to ramp up taxes, institute a command-and-control economy, stop industrial development in the developing world, and, y’know, just maybe, suspend democracy and jail people who object… If Greens were simply raising money to support research into clean energy and carbon capture and the rest of it, there would be no problem and no objections.  If they were to simply try to fix the problem, instead of trying to bully the rest of the world, if they were donating 100 million to solar panel research rather than pissing it down the drain of elections and ‘awareness raising,’ then there would be no problem… ~Prussian (What is Mann that thou art mindful of him?)

They just want you to do what they want: they are climatologists demanding faith in the new religion of global warming, the UN and Leftist government. This has nothing to do with the world’s climate whatsoever; it’s all about power and increasing receipts from the productive through fears, lies, exaggeration and deceit. His “faith” allowed him to act out the fantasy of every dangerous psychopath dreaming of revenge upon a world that was not good enough for him and that otherwise failed to accord him the special notice or place that he thought he merited. ~Theodore Dalrymple

 

 

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