Poll – You Do Not Need a Weatherman to Predict Climate

What is your prediction? For example, while it’s just a guess Salvatore Del Prete (3-Mar-2011) believes temperatures may be, 2F to 3F colder than they are now by the end of this decade.

He points out that the solar/volcanic activity and natural oscillations have, ‘all been phasing from a cold mode to warm mode, overall, starting around 1700 AD or so.’ And, Del Prete says it was, ‘late 2005 when the trends started to reverse.’

‘Last century,’ according to Del Prete, ‘we had record high solar activity, limited volcanic activity, SOI oscillation mostly negative, AO/NAO mostly positive, and PDO/AMO mostly in a warm phase… [accounting] for the overall temperature rise.’

‘In contrast,’ however, he says that, ‘this decade will more than likely, continue to see low solar activity, more volcanic activity, SOI oscillation being more positive, AO/NAO circulations being more negative, and PDO/AMO being mostly in a cold phase. The result will be colder temperatures.’

A key assumption in his prediction is that, ‘solar activity remains low,’ and by low he means, ‘an average solar flux reading of between 70 and 100.’ And what do other scientists believe concerning future solar activity? Del Prete noted a study on the climaterealist web-site showing that, 80.6% of the largest earthquakes/most volcanic activity correlates with low solar activity.

‘Right now,’ Del Prete says that according to ‘the best solar scientist that I follow, they are expecting the sun to remain in a Dalton Minimum type period, which should last to 2035 or so. If correct that will mean colder temperatures overall, up to at least 2035.’



About Wagathon

Hot World Syndrome—fear of a hotter, more intimidating world than it actually is prompting a desire for more protection than is warranted by any actual threat. A Chance Meeting– We toured south along the Bicentennial Bike Trail in the Summer of 1980, working up appetites covering ~70 miles per day and staying at hiker/biker campgrounds at night along the Oregon/California coast (they were 50¢ a day at that time). The day's ride over, and after setting up tents, hitting the showers, and making a run to a close-by store, it was time to relax. The third in our little bicycle tour group, Tom, was about 30 yards away conversing with another knot of riders and treating himself to an entire cheesecake for dinner. He probably figured Jim and I would joke about what a pig he was eating that whole pie and decided to eat among strangers. Three hours later after sharing stories and remarking on a few coincidences that turned up here and there, Tom and one of the former strangers realized they were cousins, meeting in this most unlikely place for the first time. ~Mac
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3 Responses to Poll – You Do Not Need a Weatherman to Predict Climate

  1. There is warming at the same rate of 0.15 C per decade no matter what we do. GHG emisions are still the largest contribution, perhaps aerosoles have the largest negative feedback also with the largest uncertainty. Lockwood and Frohlich drove the last nail in the skeptics coffin, reduced output of the Sun is not an excuse for global warming skeptics.

  2. Mac says:

    Do you remember how cold it was during the times of Charles Dickens? I know I don’t… But, I can read.

  3. Wagathon says:

    “The partial forecast indicates that climate may stabilize or cool until 2030-2040. Possible physical mechanisms [ike the factors discussed above–e.g., solar activity and ENSO effects] are qualitatively discussed with an emphasis on the phenomenon of collective synchronization of coupled oscillators.” ~Nikola Scafetta

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