TSI decrease, Little Ice Age
Variation of Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) is the fundamental cause of climate change on Earth as determined by a long term imbalance between solar radiation entering the upper layers of the atmosphere and the total energy emitted from Earth back to space
Abstract… Average annual balance of the thermal budget of the system Earth-atmosphere during long time period will reliably determine the course and value of both an energy excess accumulated by the Earth or the energy deficit in the thermal budget which, with account for data of the TSI forecast, can define and predict well in advance the direction and amplitude of the forthcoming climate changes. [Abdussamatov, HI. Bicentennial decrease of the total solar irradiance leads to unbalanced thermal budget of the earth and the little ice age. Applied Physics Research. Vol.4, No.1, pp. 178-184 (2012)]**
We have known the reason all along. Why didn’t we trust reason? Why did we foresake the scientific method. Why have we placed our faith in politicians instead of ourselves? When we can answer these questions only then will we begin to understand why America lost its way.
Mediums, tarot card readers, and global warming alarmists ply their trade by sounding credible. We are responsible for understanding what’s right and the right thing to do.
Fear of global warming is like worrying about the Earth having a fever. Movements come and go. Political movements change. For example, fear of runaway global warming still is the preoccupation of Western scientists and governments. It also interests sociologists, psychologists and philosophers who are busy studying the effects that this mass mania on society.
We’re too close to see what’s happening now or to know who will be around to write the last chapter in the global warming alarmist saga. The Left’s anti-capitalism, anti-Judeo/Christian ideology of today may be the antidisestablishmentcapitalismglobal-warmanism Party of tomorrow. The future we do not know and cannot foresee will belong to others.
But we should know one thing for sure: real scientists do not pretend that they can predict what in fifty years will be the global climate of the world. We should also know that the Anti-Capitalism Movement represents the sacrifice of individualism on the altar of demands for the legitimization of a secular, socialist state bureaucracy.
The only way to get our society to truly change is to frighten people… ~Daniel Botkin
Do you look for truth from a government that wants you to live in fear? Philip Stott tells us, “climate is the most complex, coupled, nonlinear, chaotic system known.” Do you really trust government to act in your best interest when it won’t even admit how complex nature is?
Willis Eschenbach has brought this reality to life while exposing the frailty of AGW theory. Global warming alarmists simply believe increased CO2 will enhance the greenhouse effect. That belief of course goes against reality. As Eschenbach reminds us, “the climate is an almost unimaginably complex dynamic system.” To better understand the complexity of climate Eschenbach identified “five major intricate, interrelated, and incompletely understood subsystems,” as follows:
“…atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere, cryosphere, and lithosphere. (And that’s not counting the extra-terrestrial system, involving solar radiation, the complex interaction of helio- and geo-magnetism, solar wind, cosmic rays, coronal mass ejections, and the like.)
“Each of these subsystems has a host of known and unknown forcings, interactions, phase transitions, limitations, resonances, couplings, response times, feedbacks, natural cycles, emergent phenomena, constructal constraints, and control systems. Finally, climate is affected by things occurring on spatial scales from the molecular to the planetary, and on temporal scales from the instantaneous to millions of years.
“To illustrate what this complexity means for the current “simple physics” paradigm, consider a similar “simple physics” problem in heat transfer. Suppose we take a block of aluminum six feet long and put one end of it into a bucket of hot water. We attach a thermometer to the other end, keep the water hot, and watch what happens. Fairly soon, the temperature at the other end of the block starts to rise. It’s a one-dimensional problem, ruled by simple physics.
“To verify our results, we try it again, but this time with a block of iron. Once again the temperature soon rises at the other end, just a bit more slowly than the aluminum We try it with a block of glass, and a block of wood, and a block of copper. In each case, after time, the temperature at the other end of the block rises. This is clearly simple physics in each case.
“As a final test, I look around for something else that is six feet long to use in the investigation. Finding nothing, I have an inspiration. I sit down, put my feet in the hot water, put the thermometer in my mouth and wait for the temperature of my head to start rising. After all, heat transmission is simple physics, isn’t it? So I just sit with my feet in the hot water and wait for the temperature of my head to rise.
“And wait …
“The moral of the story is that in dealing with complex systems such as the climate or the human body, the simplistic application of one-dimensional analyses or the adoption of a simple paradigm based on simple physics often gives results that have no resemblance to real world outcomes. It is this inability of the current paradigm to lead us to any deeper understanding of climate that underlines the need for a new paradigm. The current paradigm is incapable of solving many of the puzzles posed by the variations in global climate.”
Facts are facts:
Since most of the rise in the temperature during the previous period of global warming occurred during the recovery from the LIA and has occurred with no assistance from humans, it can be considered ‘a natural component’ of global warming. That amount is equal to about 0.5°C/100 years. This estimate is based on the Earth’s experience beginning 200 years ago to current.
Accordingly, we can estimate the temperature 100 years from now to be 0.5°C warmer than it is today, plus or minus ± 0.2°C, depending on the effects of multi-decadal oscillation (or not–the Earth also could descend into another ice age. It’s happened before and may be overdue).
Science tells us, that, “the temperature in 2100 depends greatly on the combination of both effects,” i.e., “an almost linear increase of about +0.5°C/100 years and a multi-decadal oscillation of amplitude 0.2°C.”
Given this relationship, there is no room left for any other causal factors and the hysterics of impending global warming catastrophe is exposed for what it is: nothing but a hoax and a scare tactic.
It doesn’t matter what is true, it only matters what people believe is true. ~Paul Watson (Co-founder of Greenpeace)
Although fear of global warming or cooling is more social than science it nonetheless is far more logical to fear global cooling–which kills people–than periods of global warming which have been the most favorable times for all forms of life over the last 10,000 years.
Moreover, climate change is nominally due to solar activity. It’s the sun, stupid. We have no control over the sun, which has been anomalously quiet for a while. And now we are in a period of global cooling. The cooling of ocean temperatures is a fact. No one can hide the decline forever.
If you want to see how government corrupts the process of learning you need go no further than to look at a study in Environmental Research Letters, titled, “Are cold winters in Europe associated with low solar activity?” In one of the great examples of cerebral contortionism I’ve ever seen, the authors of the study concluded, as follows:
“Lastly, one can invert the title of this paper and ask `Does the occurrence of lower/higher solar activity make a cold/warm winter in Europe more likely (than the climatological mean)?’ Our results strongly suggest that it does, which has implications for seasonal predictions.”
How do we even begin to cut through this sort of systemic obfuscation and filet the mumbo-jumbo to get to the meat of the matter–to discover the truth?
What we see above is an example of erstwhile authors being forced to dissemble and dance and essentially proclaim in the most tortured language imaginable–and without the slightest scientific backing whatsoever–that, while the role of the sun on the weather in the UK may have a bearing even on the rest of Europe it most certainly does not effect the rest of the Northern Hemisphere and cannot be said to affect the rest of the globe. Amazing.
Accordingly, even though the UK and possibly the rest of Europe may freeze over, these twisting and turning authors have tapped out a fiat license that allows global warming alarmists to endlessly continue to propagate groundless fears of runaway global warming. We’re all tap dancing around real truth: humans are not causing the globe to warm.
Even the most pitiful examples of fiat science do not allow the authors to dismiss or explain away the essential and incontrovertible fact that all climate realists know:
“Studies of isotopes generated in the atmosphere by galactic cosmic rays show that the Sun has been exceptionally active during recent decades. This grand solar maximum has persisted for longer than most previous examples in the cosmogenic isotope record and is expected to end soon.” (Ibid.)
The authors are essentially begging you to forget about what the secular, socialist government-funded academic institutional system has forced them to write. Instead they ask you to use common sense. They’re actually telling you to turn the title of their own study on its head if you want to discover the real truth. In other words, you must provide your own answer to the real question, that fascist academia will not allow the authors to print in big block letters, e.g.,
THE BIG QUESTION: Were the relatively warmer European winters over the last several decades associated with global warming the result of relatively higher–and indeed ‘exceptionally’ higher–solar activity?
THE ANSWER: If you are a climate realist, your answer will of course be: Yes!
It is the tortured languange of the global warming alarmists and the simple fact that English has been turned into a liars language that tells us more than intended about what is really going on. In this era in what passes for mainstream communication in the Western global village of Liberal Utopia, ‘the medium is the message.’ That message is that we have come to rely on government and government disinformation to tell us about what others should do, what we others shall have, how others will live, what we should think about that and what will be done to those who speak out against it.
We are learning that the government cannot control all of the news and information nor continue to hide facts forever. The forces and motives that underlie the creation of media content — from entertainment to technology — is emerging and converging as the platforms and devices make access and sharing of information ubiquitous. In this context, we see that global warming alarmism (AGW) was the creation of the ‘90s when consumer content could more easily be anticipated and controlled by the disseminators of AGW superstition and deception.
The shift in public opinion against the AGW weather underground, and all of he facilitators of AGW pseudo science in Western academia, parallels the change in the global culture and technology of information distribution and consumption. What we see is government is too big, it cannot be trusted, it does not trust a free man and it cannot license the truth.
**Reference, see–e.g., Bicentennial Decrease Of The Total Solar Irradiance Leads To Unbalanced Thermal Budget Of The Earth And The Little Ice Age, APPLIED PHYSICS RESEARCH, 4(1):178-184