Ominous Message Revealed in Toast

Toasted_bread-AGWMissing Heat Found!

“It’s a travesty I didn’t find it sooner,” global warming guru Kevin Trenberth  announced to the global warming community today as he waived a few slices of toasted bread over his head, “but, better late than never.”

April Fools. Just kidding! We’re still in a 15-year cooling trend.

According to Leftist academicians polar bears have been suffering from second-hand humanity for more than 15 years. How have they survived this long? Rumor has it a polar bear at the San Diego Zoo had to switch its diet from seal blubber to bread and margaritas.

Kevin Trenberth’s missing heat (i.e., us Americans are causing global warming but we just can’t find where it’s hiding) is climate porn. Could anything be more outrageous than painting a picture of heat hiding in the deepest ocean waiting to spring forth like a fiery Phoenix from hell, scorching the Earth, killing every living thing and raising the seas to cover the lands like a biblical flood? That’s what you get when government-funded scientists decide it’s their job to frighten children (like pot-crazed juveniles in sex-crazed orgies and old ladies smoking cigarettes through holes in their necks after throat cancer destroyed their faces).

Good intentions are supposed to excuse all of the outrageousness and unseemliness, which are the only sorts of free speech Leftists feel compelled to protect these days. For the Left the ends justify the means. Truth no longer matters and the resulting moral relativism is why having an intelligent sharing of thoughts with a True Believer of global warming alarmism is about like having a conversation with the 90 year old embalmed body of Vladimir Lenin. For the Left, Lenin is just sleeping, waiting to arise and destroy capitalism and rewrite the Constitution and promise everyone everything they want in the new liberal Utopia, like a pound of pot in every pot–whatever it takes to get what they want.

According to Kevin Trenberth, Al Gore and all of the Leftist politicians of global warming alarmism, the AGW hypothesis says there must be a lot of heat in the system somewhere even if it cannot be detected. But, the oceans have been in a cooling trend for a decade. And, as we all know by now, when the oceans are cooling there is no global warming. So, who lost the heat?  Trenberth says it’€™s a travesty that we cannot explain this (“The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can’t”).

Maybe, it just is no€™t there, right? But, if the lost heat simply does not exist, then the AGW hypothesis is wrong. And, if it’s all wrong, what does that mean for climate change and climatists’ temperature predictions? Perhaps instead of global warming the present cooling trend will continue for another 3 to 7 decades. Some scientists believe that is possible. Perhaps the Earth is heading into the redux of an already overdue ice age.

And, what can we expect if solar activity is the nominal driver of all climate change? We have a lot of research that has shed light on the multi-decadal time scale of solar cycles over the last millennium with, for example, periodicities of 200, 100, and 60 years. And currently we have incontrovertible observational evidence of an anomalously quiet Sun.

Maybe humanity has a rendezvous with a date made in heaven. Is that Nature knocking on the door? Is Nature bringing global warming or cooling? Will Nature give us a taste of what life will be like on snowball Earth during the 90,000 years of the next ice age? Nobody knows the answers to these questions.

Nikola Scafetta believes that, “The partial forecast indicates that climate may stabilize or cool until 2030-2040.” Scafetta’s forecast is based upon, ‘physical mechanisms’ — like the Sun and the big planets and what he calls ‘the phenomenon of collective synchronization of coupled oscillators’ — as for example when a physical mechanism like ENSO (The El Niño-Southern Oscillation) and changes in solar activity, combine to make something unimaginable. Qing-Bin Lu believes that, “a long-term global cooling starting around 2002 is expected to continue for next five to seven decades.”

If we had the mathematics — although it might take every computer in the world churning numbers day and night — and, if we knew what we were doing we could model the physical mechanisms and the product of their synchronizations and the effects of the swirling vortices  of ocean currents and monsoons bringing on heat and cold waves around the globe as hurricanes spout heat to dark reaches of empty space and volcanoes shoot more pollution into the atmosphere than ever produced by every single car that that has ever been driven on the face of the Earth.

But humanity does not have the talent to model the climate. Climatists are simply lying when they pretend they have a General Circulation Model (GCM) that enables them to predict the climate of the world 50 years into the future. Climatists would rather engage in scholarly linguistic gymnastics, perform feats of cerebral contortionism and make pronouncements about things that cannot be verified or ever proven than to confront the simple undeniable truth that climatists cannot even produce good seasonal predictions.

Global warming is nothing but a con job. Climatists are taking in as much of your money as they can get away with it for as long as they possibly can and providing nothing of value in return: just warnings about polar bears dying and runaway global warming. Meanwhile, the Left uses global warming as an opportunity to create a crisis that it uses as an excuse to take more power from the people. Before people realize it their liberties, earnings and the futures of their children have been usurped by unelected bureaucrats.

First, a summary of what climate feedbacks are, by definition: In response to a surface temperature change, other changes in the climate system (clouds, etc.) can either magnify (positive feedback) or reduce (negative feedback) the original temperature change. The single largest feedback is negative: the increase in infrared energy lost to space as temperature increases. This so-called “Planck effect” is what stabilizes the climate system against runaway change. ~Dr. Roy Spencer

Reasonable people have made some headway. No hysterical AGW fearmonger other than Al Gore and school teachers (in the dropout factories we call the public education system) still continue to maintain the delusion that runaway global warming is even a possibility. At the get-go, bias, mistake, surprise and regret is built into every GCM. Even as the Left uses up more and more resources in a futile attempt to overcome ‘rational ignorance,’ their mono-causal belief about CO2 dooms them to natural ignorance:

The multidimensionality of all but the simplest phenomena imply that ignorance is commonplace and also that ignorance does not automatically diminish as sample size or experience, per se, increases. Rational ignorance can be reduced by gathering information about variables known to exist, but about which one had previously gathered no information. Reducing natural ignorance requires the discovery of previously unknown variables. In sampling terms, reducing natural ignorance requires tabulating previously unknown characteristics of the potential sample at hand. ~Roger D. Congleton, ‘Coping with Unpleasant Surprises in a Complex World: Is Rational Choice Possible in a World with Positive Information Costs?’ (June 2011)

We may be on the eve of a big surprise. There will be regrets when Western civilization realizes it wasted so much on GCMs that from the beginning were designed to fail because they ignored so many important variables. For example, over the last 1000 years there has been several periods of protracted global cooling –i.e., the Oort, Wolf, Spörer, Maunder and Dalton minima — all associated with long periods of low solar activity.

We may well be at the beginning of just such a period today, in the current period of low solar activity. Meanwhile, Kevin Trenberth is still looking for the missing heat. God-knows where it is… And, all of the GCMs have been nothing but digital garbage disposers — GIGO: Garbage In God Out. Surprising.

Next, will come the regrets about the sacrifice of individual liberty on the altar of liberal Utopia because climatists were mistaken. There will be regrets about not appreciating the fact the Founders knew a lot more than we ever imagined — before it was too late — all because a dumbed-down society believed school teachers could save the world; and, because a foolish people trusted politicians who promised whatever they thought the people wanted to hear. None of our ancestors were led to survival by high priests in green robes with computer models chanting anti-energy and anti-food slogans.

We all are witness to one of the greatest social experiments of all time. Everyone on some level understands that as individuals we are capable of learning from our mistakes — perhaps more than from success. And, we are capable of changing our ways. Whether as a society we can do the same and learn from the self-defeating nihilism of Leftist ideology, and turn away from the dead end of Eurocommunism, before it is too late, is not a future that is written in stone. We are not a chosen people. The truth of Americanism is that we as individuals choose our own futures and are personally responsible for all of the choices we make. But, we’ve already made a lot of mistakes. Sometimes, when people say “no” to truth long enough a time may come when the truth just does not matter anymore.

About Wagathon

Hot World Syndrome—fear of a hotter, more intimidating world than it actually is prompting a desire for more protection than is warranted by any actual threat. A Chance Meeting– We toured south along the Bicentennial Bike Trail in the Summer of 1980, working up appetites covering ~70 miles per day and staying at hiker/biker campgrounds at night along the Oregon/California coast (they were 50¢ a day at that time). The day's ride over, and after setting up tents, hitting the showers, and making a run to a close-by store, it was time to relax. The third in our little bicycle tour group, Tom, was about 30 yards away conversing with another knot of riders and treating himself to an entire cheesecake for dinner. He probably figured Jim and I would joke about what a pig he was eating that whole pie and decided to eat among strangers. Three hours later after sharing stories and remarking on a few coincidences that turned up here and there, Tom and one of the former strangers realized they were cousins, meeting in this most unlikely place for the first time. ~Mac
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