Noisy Red Hockey Sticks and Climate Change Politics

Future of Global Warming-L



Reports that say that something hasn’t happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don’t know we don’t know. ~Donald Rumsfeld

Finally, we have accurate data — using satellites to measure the temperature of the lower-troposphere — and just then, global warming stopped! Among all the unknowns, we see the shimmering of truth like a jewel beneath the waves –i.e., now there’s something we really do know: there has been 0.00°C of global warming over the last 17.5 years. Do tell… despite increasing atmospheric CO2; and, I think we know the reason why: what goes up must come down.

As it turns out the billion of dollars that Western civilization has funneled to academia to measure, adjust, maintain and explain the mountains of data about the temperatures over the lands and waters of the world has been a big waste of time and money. As it turns out, while Western academics have been busy spreading fears of global warming alarmism, a lazy sun has led to an easily observable 20-year long cooling trend during the December/January periods for all, “9 climate regions in the US.” Like Paul Revere riding through the night to warn the patriots, this cooling trend signaled the coming 17.5 year hiatus in warming around the globe and helps to explain why many scientists outside the West see decades ahead of future global cooling in our future not warming. (See, AGW movement collapsing – cooling December/January now for 20 years!)

Gone are the days when a feckless academic can sift and sieve secret numbers — boiled over with undisclosed computer programs using unverified models — to produce a ‘hockey stick’ graph depicting a scary Gorean future of runaway global warming,  supposedly in sync with an increase in human-caused atmospheric CO2. Mathematically speaking, Western academia’s support of Michael Mann’s hockey stick has been like witchdoctors huddled around a green bubbling brew of magic potion; and, the IPCC’s use of Mann’s work for ideological purposes has made a mockery of science.

As a religious leader Mann perhaps had a great deal of influence over his sycophantic followers. But as a scientist you are not supposed to teach how to produce a flood of hockey stick-shaped graphs by simply feeding white noise into a mathematical model that works like a maniacal global warming doomsday machine stuck in maximum overdrive.

White noise, has equal power density across the entire frequency spectrum, that is, it has constant energy at all frequencies. When this is graphically represented, white noise has a flat power spectral density. In a practical example, white noise is what is used to refer to that steady, even soothing sound produced when tuning in to an unused radio or TV frequency. White noise has an equal amount of energy per frequency band in contrast to pink noise, which has an equal amount of energy per octave. Pink noise has a frequency spectrum that is flat in logarithmic space. The power density of pink noise, compared with white noise, decreases by 3 dB (decibels) per octave. It is said that pink noise is the most soothing sound to the human ear. Pink noise has the same frequency distribution as falling rain.

Red noise is similar to pink noise, but it has relatively more energy at lower frequencies than pink noise. Red noise has a power density that decreases 6 dB per octave as the frequency increases. Of course, red noise was named after a connection with red light, which is on the low end of the visible light spectrum. Mathematically speaking, integrating white noise produces red noise. Red noise in the paleoclimatology context comes from the fact that tree rings have correlation from year to year, that is, if a tree grows well in a given year, it will store carbohydrates and will tend to have a good year of growth the following year as well. Red noise in the paleoclimatology context is modeled by a first-order autoregressive model.

(See, Edward J. Wegman, et al., Ad Hoc Committee Report On The ‘Hockey Stick’ Global Climate Reconstruction)

Amazingly, Western academics don’t even need data — especially if they are paleoclimate dendrologists (and their tree rings are not telling them what they want to hear) — to be acclaimed global warming doomsday prognosticators with the ear of Leftist politicians and bureaucrats in the highest levels of government. Simply construct models that turn white noise into noisy red hockey sticks. “In general,” says Wegman, “we found [Mann’s methods] to be somewhat obscure and incomplete and the criticisms [by Mann’s skeptical critics] to be valid and compelling… It is important to note the isolation of the paleoclimate community; even though they rely heavily on statistical methods they do not seem to be interacting with the statistical community… Moreover, the work has been sufficiently politicized that this community can hardly reassess their public positions without losing credibility.”

Global warming academics need not even tell the truth to be quoted in the mainstream media. “Overall,” says Wegman, “our committee believes that Mann’s assessments that the decade of the 1990s was the hottest decade of the millennium and that 1998 was the hottest year of the millennium cannot be supported by his analysis.”

David Holland published in the 2007 Energy & Environment, (Vol. 18, No. 7) the results of his review of the IPCC process and found, “bias and concealment” in “the hockey stick affair.” Holland, “concluded that the IPCC has neither the structure nor the necessary independence and supervision of its processes to be acceptable as the monopoly authority on climate science.”

Will Rogers said, When you find yourself in a hole, stop digging. Recognizing the problems of, “systematic error that are larger than the observed anomalies… [and] burying the bad news about model performance,” statistics Professor Leonard Smith (London School of Economics) is smart to ask, “Can (we) climate modelers stop digging?” Smith sees, “the demonstrated value of earth/climate forecasts,” as follows: (1) “significant” in the “medium-range,” of about two weeks or less; (2) of value seasonally for, “some months and regions;” and (3), not of much value at all for global or regional purposes when looking decades into the future. (See, The user made me do it: seamless forecasts, higher hemlines, and credible computation)

No probability forecast is complete without an estimate
of its own irrelevance. ~Leonard Smith

There are at least two things about which we all can be certain. First, given that climate change is inevitable, the past is prologue and nothing we can do will ever stop the climate from changing, our best adaptation strategy is to have the courage to do nothing! Finally, society must face the fact that the Golden Goose is on the mat, the economy will continue to shrink, futures will be dashed and our liberties will be trampled if we cannot get the weasels out of the chicken coop.

Probably there is no other field of applied science in which so much money has been spent to effect so little progress as in weather forecasting. ~H. C. Willett, The Forecast Problem, Compendium of Meteorology (1951)

The fears that global warming is caused by modernity says more about our society than our climate.  Mann’s hockey stick is symbolic of the fall of Western civilization, the loss of honor and integrity in science and the sacrifice of truth and honesty in academia and politics on the altar of a failed Leftist ideology that is based on self-defeating fears about individual freedom and taking personal responsibility for our own lives.

Climate change controversy gets air-time. Although controversies are allegedly about science, often such disputes are used as a proxy for conflicts between alternative visions of what society should be like and about who has authority to promote such visions. ~Mike Hulme

About Wagathon

Hot World Syndrome—fear of a hotter, more intimidating world than it actually is prompting a desire for more protection than is warranted by any actual threat. A Chance Meeting– We toured south along the Bicentennial Bike Trail in the Summer of 1980, working up appetites covering ~70 miles per day and staying at hiker/biker campgrounds at night along the Oregon/California coast (they were 50¢ a day at that time). The day's ride over, and after setting up tents, hitting the showers, and making a run to a close-by store, it was time to relax. The third in our little bicycle tour group, Tom, was about 30 yards away conversing with another knot of riders and treating himself to an entire cheesecake for dinner. He probably figured Jim and I would joke about what a pig he was eating that whole pie and decided to eat among strangers. Three hours later after sharing stories and remarking on a few coincidences that turned up here and there, Tom and one of the former strangers realized they were cousins, meeting in this most unlikely place for the first time. ~Mac
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4 Responses to Noisy Red Hockey Sticks and Climate Change Politics

  1. Pingback: High Resolution Analysis of SOI | GeoEnergy Math

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  3. Wagathon says:

    In the context of the global warming debate, courage to do nothing! means we should not destroy our economy nor give away our individual liberty because the fearmongers of Western academia tell us modernity’s CO2 will continue to cause the Earth to warm with disastrous consequences for all humanity if we don’t do something! –i.e., empower an ever bigger secular, socialist government to run our lives. Global warming is not a problem but fear of it is. Technology marches on without the help nor the blessing of the teachers of global warming alarmism. We are now burning natural gas which means we’re burning more hydrogen and less carbon. Government did not demand we do this: Government is not a solution to our problem government is the problem. (Ronald Reagan )

  4. Do “nothing”… as an adaptation strategy? Keep building houses in flood plains? Refuse to upgrade buildings, bridges and levies, or retrofit for earthquake safety? Quit managing forests? Never fix your roof? Stop insulating your home??? Nonsense. There are always ways to improve the engineering of your domicile and life to reduce waste, make power technologies more efficient, and provide additional safety against weather. Humans aren’t evolved to live outdoors without technology. Climate isn’t going away. Deal with it, or be eliminated by it.

    It doesn’t ultimately matter what causes change. The cycles of change are fact. You still DO things to adapt, or face negative consequences and increased costs. Given a qualitative philosophical comparison between “not my fault” and “I made it worse”, it’s more responsible and mature to act AS IF you created the problem, whether you did or not. Prolonged argument over “did we – didn’t we” cause it is a way of being lazy, of avoiding responsibility for your own survival.

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