Global Warming and Catastrophic Deluge Science

Life on Water Earth

Global temperatures have been very stable because natural mechanisms govern the climate on our water world. Everything else said about an average temperature of our Earth is superstitious flapdoodle — a myth — masquerading as science.

Why has Earth’s temperature stayed so stable? Global temperature has stayed within a narrow band for at least the last half billion years. During that time the planet has seen meteor strikes, and millennia long widespread volcanic eruptions, and huge forest fires, and oceans disappearing as continents were lifted out of the sea, and huge changes in the land cover, and all manner of good, bad, and ugly events. Each of these events had a large effect on the forcings. Despite all of that, despite all of the variation in the forcings and the changes in the losses during all of that geological time, the earth’s temperature hasn’t moved around much at all. A few percent. And the variation over the last 10,000 years has been less than ±1%. For a system as complex as the climate, this is amazing stability. ~Willis Eschenbach

Some continue to worship Penn State teacher Michael Mann’s ‘hockey stick’ – the graph put forward by Al Gore and the UN-IPCC – that purports to show an unusually high increase in global temperatures during the last half century. Some will believe anything especially if it portrays America in a bad light. Nevertheless, the hockey stick is a proven scientific fraud.

“The increase in temperature between 1910 and 1940 was virtually identical to the increase between 1970 and 2000. Yet the IPCC does not attribute the increase from 1910–1942 to human influence,” says Greenpeace founder and Leftist environmental heretic Dr. Patrick Moore who then asks, “does the IPCC believe that a virtually identical increase in temperature after 1950 is caused mainly by human influence, when it has no explanation for nearly identical increase from 1910 to 1940?”

Hans von Storch, Question: What is the subjective element in scientific practice? Does culture matter? What is the role of instinct?

Roger A. Pielke, Sr., Reply: Science needs to advance by following the scientific method. This needs to be independent of culture or any other external influence.

(Interview, AGU Newsletter, September 5, 2010)

Those who continue to believe in hockey stick science deserve the seriousness we’d give to those who believe global warming is caused by aliens. And, all who hold public positions of trust and responsibility or who use public money to continue pushing hockey stick science on the people should be held accountable.

And, like a lucrative football program with errant coaching staff, they will whitewash their own scandals… Penn State proved this by responding to the scandal in its football program and Michael Mann’s troubles in almost identical fashion… They want the money. They do not want the strings, like transparency and accountability. (Christopher Horner, The Liberal War on Transparency: Confessions…)

The long handle of the hockey stick means that the Earth’s climate was flat until the later half of the 20th century. How can that be? What happened to the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), the Little Ice Age (LIA) and where are PDOs (Pacific Decadal Oscillations) and cycles like El Niño and La Niña?

The ersatz Phlogistonians of climate change science are hiding the MWP, LIA, historical climate patterns and even the collapse of global warming hysteria that was ushered in by a long global warming hiatus and the current global cooling trend. Western teachers of global warming alarmism still refuse to admit MBH98/99/08 (aka, the ‘hockey stick’ graph) is a proven fraud. Like modern day witchdoctors these weathered academics continue to pretend their climate models (GCMs), meticulously tuned to foretell doom, are still valid. It is as if climatologists claimed they succeeded in capturing the future in a bottle. Climatologists call non-believers, deniers; far worse, however, climatologists are denying the obvious.

What we can learn from this geologic climate changes is that the past is indeed the key to the future. In 1999, the year after the warmest year of recent times, I projected the climate pattern from the past century and past 500 years into the future and predicted that we would be due for 25-30 years of global cooling beginning about 2000. The PDO changed from its warm to cool mode in 1999 and since then we have had global cooling, quite moderate to flat (interrupted by two warm El Ninos) and intensifying since 2007. ~Dr. Don Easterbrook

It is inarguable that most of the rise in the Earth’s temperature since the LIA has occurred with no assistance whatsoever from humanity. Such global warming is at the least evidence of a ‘natural component’ that must also exist in the last half of the 20th century. The climatists of global warming alarmism have difficulty admitting the obvious because such warming due to natural causes – about 0.5°C /100 years – is sufficient to explain all of the global warming we see over the last 200 years.

Given the natural component of global warming, there is no room left for any other causal factors. No further explanations are necessary so hysterical ravings about a warming catastrophe is ludicrous (and exposed as hoax and a scare tactic). We already can estimate the temperature 100 years from now—e.g., 0.5°C warmer than it is today (± 0.2°C depending on the effects of multi-decadal oscillations). And, our estimate will probably be pretty close if the Earth does not instead descend into an ice age that may in fact be overdue and very likely inevitable, someday. The weather varies and climate change is natural and unavoidable.

During the past century, five of these climate fluctuations can be tied to glacial oscillations, oceanic temperature changes, atmospheric temperature changes, and solar variation… The older fluctuations can be linked to… variation in cosmogenic radiation. Historic climatic and oceanic temperature fluctuations are associated with solar variations. The excellent correlation of glacial, climatic, oceanic, and solar variation strongly suggests cause and effect relationships. Past patterns of these variations allow projection into the future. ~Dr. Don Easterbrook

If not for ideological reasons – i.e., Left vs. right politics – why would government scientists purposefully reject observational evidence, like the obvious role of the Sun, and instead adopt climate change beliefs based solely upon unverifiable models?

Solar activity has always varied. Around the year 1000, we had a period of very high solar activity, which coincided with the Medieval Warm Period. It was a time when frosts in May were almost unknown – a matter of great importance for a good harvest. Vikings settled in Greenland and explored the coast of North America. On the whole it was a good time. For example, China’s population doubled in this period.

But after about 1300 solar activity declined and the world began to get colder. It was the beginning of the episode we now call the Little Ice Age. In this cold time, all the Viking settlements in Greenland disappeared. Sweden surprised Denmark by marching across the ice, and in London the Thames froze repeatedly. But more serious were the long periods of crop failures, which resulted in poorly nourished populations, reduced in Europe by about 30 per cent because of disease and hunger.

It’s important to realize that the Little Ice Age was a global event. It ended in the late 19th Century and was followed by increasing solar activity. Over the past 50 years solar activity has been at its highest since the medieval warmth of 1000 years ago. But now it appears that the Sun has changed again, and is returning towards what solar scientists call a “grand minimum” such as we saw in the Little Ice Age.

The match between solar activity and climate through the ages is sometimes explained away as coincidence. Yet it turns out that, almost no matter when you look and not just in the last 1000 years, there is a link. Solar activity has repeatedly fluctuated between high and low during the past 10,000 years. In fact the Sun spent about 17 per cent of those 10,000 years in a sleeping mode, with a cooling Earth the result…

That the Sun might now fall asleep in a deep minimum was suggested by solar scientists at a meeting in Kiruna in Sweden two years ago. So when Nigel Calder and I updated our book The Chilling Stars, we wrote a little provocatively that, we are advising our friends to enjoy global warming while it lasts.

In fact global warming has stopped and a cooling is beginning. Mojib Latif from the University of Kiel argued at the recent UN World Climate Conference in Geneva that the cooling may continue through the next 10 to 20 years. His explanation was a natural change in the North Atlantic circulation, not in solar activity. But no matter how you interpret them, natural variations in climate are making a comeback… (While the sun sleeps, Translation approved by Henrik Svensmark)

What does the best evidence now tell us? That man-made global warming is a mere hypothesis that has been inflated by both exaggeration and downright malfeasance, fueled by the awarding of fat grants and salaries to any scientist who’ll produce the ‘right’ results. ~Matt Patterson, NY Post, 03-Sep-2010

About Wagathon

Hot World Syndrome—fear of a hotter, more intimidating world than it actually is prompting a desire for more protection than is warranted by any actual threat. A Chance Meeting– We toured south along the Bicentennial Bike Trail in the Summer of 1980, working up appetites covering ~70 miles per day and staying at hiker/biker campgrounds at night along the Oregon/California coast (they were 50¢ a day at that time). The day's ride over, and after setting up tents, hitting the showers, and making a run to a close-by store, it was time to relax. The third in our little bicycle tour group, Tom, was about 30 yards away conversing with another knot of riders and treating himself to an entire cheesecake for dinner. He probably figured Jim and I would joke about what a pig he was eating that whole pie and decided to eat among strangers. Three hours later after sharing stories and remarking on a few coincidences that turned up here and there, Tom and one of the former strangers realized they were cousins, meeting in this most unlikely place for the first time. ~Mac
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