Climate Change Problem — The Pause Continues…

Ten years down the road

Ten More Years of No Global Warming

A recent article about NASA’s Gavin Schmidt and the long pause in global warming that has taken place discusses the possible “causes” for the pause, from the Trenberthian ‘hide and seek’ idea (maybe it’s spread out so thinly in the deepest oceans that we can’t measure it) to aerosols, volcanic ash and a weaker sun, the author notes as follows: “the impact of solar activity and volcanoes does not appear sufficient to explain the problem and the accumulation of deep ocean heat appears to be somewhat elusive – the measured increase in ocean heat content being less than that required to explain the pause.”  (Emphasis added – see, Climate of Gavin at Climate

Now we’re talking about a new climate problem: the pause. It’s a problem for the global warming alarmists because they’ve done nothing to cause the pause; and, they cannot explain why it is happening without admitting that a stop in global warming is what they said they wanted and that the warming they predicted wasn’t really alarming at all. Time is all that was needed to disprove the AGW hypothesis (the idea that humanity’s release of CO2 into the atmosphere is causing an increase in global warming). The faithful of Climatism are saying, no, no, no, not God bless the pause; God damn the pause. We want more warming to prove our beliefs are true and modern man’s CO2 is bad!

The Left gave America and capitalism a bad rap. People going about their business of living in a modern world didn’t cause global warming: from the beginning it’s been nothing more than Leftist politics and Euro-communist-inspired anti-Americanism.

GALLUP: Politics Remain Major Predictor of Worry About Global Warming — Politics remain a powerful predictor of Americans’ worries about global warming, with more than half of Democrats saying they worry about it a great deal, compared with 29% of independents and 16% of Republicans. This political differentiation of global warming attitudes is not isolated; other research shows that in today’s political environment, Republicans are much more likely to say that concerns about global warming are exaggerated and that warming’s effects will not affect them personally in their lifetimes, and are less likely to say scientists believe global warming is occurring.

The passage of time is never helpful to the cause of socialism. Still, government scientists must try to conjure up a way to kick this puppy down the road for another 10 years because their global warming gravy train is going off the tracks. What, for example, is Schmidt’s solution to the pause-problem? Yes, more prognostications that he pulls out of his government-paid arse as he fabricates yet another prediction out of whole cloth –i.e., that the hiatus will end and global warming due to humanity’s release of CO2 into the atmosphere will begin again in about 10 years.

There are two problems with Schmidt’s prediction. First, no one has the temerity to predict global warming will not resume, given enough time; no one is skeptical of the fact that the Earth has been warming since the last ice age. Moreover, global temperatures have yet to eclipse those of prior epochs in human history. Earth has cooled since the days of the Romans but no one is worried about it or about returning to the climate of that time; otherwise, should we worry now that the globe is not yet hot enough?

Studying the shells of giant clams, Chinese researchers (Yan, et al., ‘Higher sea surface temperature in the northern South China Sea during the natural warm periods of late Holocene than recent decades’) used a common paleothermometer known as δ18O to measure strontium to calcium ratios and reconstruct sea surface temperatures (SST) to compare historical and current SSTs (see wiki, generally re delta-O-18 and Sr/Ca –e.g. the precise Sr/Ca ratio in the coral skeleton shows an inverse correlation with the seawater temperature during its biomineralization). The researchers found that both the Roman Period (RWP, about 2,000 years ago) and the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, about 1,000 years ) were warmer than today (Modern), based on current sea surface temperatures, that Yan, et al., graphed as follows:

Yan et al-2014-CSB-graphSSTgraph

The above findings refute claims by the IPCC and climate alarmists. Specifically, “were temperatures during the recent half century,” as the researchers sought to determine, “higher than those during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, AD 800–1300) and Roman Warm Period (RWP, BC 200–AD 400)?” The researchers’ findings showed that Modern temperatures such as the decade of the 1990s were not the warmest in the last 1,300 years: the IPCC was wrong about that. Moreover, temperatures today are not as warm as during Roman times, confirming the findings of many other studies.

With the pause there also has been a hiatus in sloppy scientific thinking. The pause neutered the alarm; and, now a calmer society’s cooler minds can more easily be heard above the grinding din of the global warming propaganda machine. We see now that the primary accomplishment of AGW theorists was to move reporting the facts about the weather in newspapers to worrying about our future in halls of liberal Western academia and Left-leaning governments. All that was needed was to redefine weather as a force of nature to climate that is something we can stop from changing by limiting CO2 emissions.

The government-education bureaucracy has for a long time been able to dress up the charade in the trappings of science. Western schoolteachers merely repeated the general allegations — often supported by scientifically-groundless representations — of a small group of self-anointed experts of climate. An obvious ‘problem’ of an unchanging climate that government scientists for the, blame-America-socio-political movement, must deal with first is admitting the pause exists; but, then trying to gain some time by predicting just 10 more years of it presents another problem. By then, it will have been 27 years of no global warming… or, the pause will have lasted for… 30 or 37 years — depending on whether you choose the surface temperature record or one of two satellite records of the lower atmosphere (Referring to the 2014 Ross McKitrick study in Open Journal of Statistics: …Duration of a Trendless Subsample in a Global Climate Time Series).

“The real problem is…,” according to Daniel Sarewitz (It’s the End of the World… Stupid), “that all the suffering to come [e.g., famine, fires, water shortages, civil strife, etc.] will have only one true cause, and that redemption can be achieved only by following one true path. No matter that long and sad human experience teaches us where such absolute orthodoxies lead. Indeed, with climate change being blamed for almost everything these days, the one phenomenon that seems to have escaped the notice of scientists, environmentalists and the media alike is that, perhaps above all, climate change is making us stupid.”





About Wagathon

Hot World Syndrome—fear of a hotter, more intimidating world than it actually is prompting a desire for more protection than is warranted by any actual threat. A Chance Meeting– We toured south along the Bicentennial Bike Trail in the Summer of 1980, working up appetites covering ~70 miles per day and staying at hiker/biker campgrounds at night along the Oregon/California coast (they were 50¢ a day at that time). The day's ride over, and after setting up tents, hitting the showers, and making a run to a close-by store, it was time to relax. The third in our little bicycle tour group, Tom, was about 30 yards away conversing with another knot of riders and treating himself to an entire cheesecake for dinner. He probably figured Jim and I would joke about what a pig he was eating that whole pie and decided to eat among strangers. Three hours later after sharing stories and remarking on a few coincidences that turned up here and there, Tom and one of the former strangers realized they were cousins, meeting in this most unlikely place for the first time. ~Mac
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