The Abyss of Global Warming Hysterics

Fear,_Natalia_Plachta_Fernandes-Cropped~4

DC’s Bloom Is Off the Math

It’s official: the NPS announced that 2015’s peak bloom date for Washington DC’s cherry blossoms occurred April 10. What we learned (see previous article [Link]) is that the cherry blossoms defied Pres. Obama’s 8-Apr-2015’s claims of Global Warming by blooming later than the April 4th peak bloom date 1921-2011 average.

Who was it who said we could look to cherry blossoms anyway for evidence of global warming and proof that humanity was heating up the globe with its release of CO2 into the atmosphere during the last half of the 20th century (AGW Theory)? For starters, the National Museum, at the heart of the nations capitol – the Smithsonian said, “the trend toward earlier blooming of flowering plants may be a result of global warming.”

Pregnant with inferences to a looming disaster, a “30-year study of flowering plant species common in the Washington, D.C. metro area,” was released by the Smithsonian along with their pronouncement that a, “trend of earlier flowering is consistent with what we know about the effects of global warming.” Obviously, late-arriving cherry blossoms do not fit the scenario of our coming doom nor that the cherry blossoms provide evidence supporting AGW Theory.

The only thing the Smithsonian has accomplished is living up to what has become our worst expectations about bad government and bad science: both look at the world through the lens of preconceived notions and find what they want to find irrespective of the facts. My point here is not to point to the April 10 peak bloom dates for the last two years as evidence of global cooling, not warming. Rather, it is to show that the government’s math is wacky. Here’s the peak blooming dates since 1921, that they had to work with (Data source: National Park Service Historic Peak Bloom Dates):

NPS-blooms

1921 March 20 • 1922 April 7 • 1923 April 9
1924 April 13 • 1925 March 27 • 1926 April 11
1927 March 20 • 1928 April 8 • 1929 March 31
1930 April 1 • 1931 April 11 • 1932 April 15
1933 April 9  1934 April 15 1935 April 1
1936 April 7 1937 April 14 1938 March 25
1939 March 30 1940 April 13 1941 April 12
1942 April 5 1943 April 4 1944 April 9
1945 March 20 1946 March 23 1947 April 12
1948 March 28 1949 March 29 1950 April 9
1951 April 6 1952 April 9 1953 March 27
1954 April 6 1955 April 2  1956 April 6
1957 April 8  1958 April 18 1959 April 6
1960 April 14 1961 April 2 1962 April 7
1963 April 3  1964 April 11  1965 April 15
1966 April 5  1967 April 6  1968 March 30
1969 April 9  1970 April 16  1971 April 8
1972 April 11 1973 April 11 1974 April 3
1975 April 3 1976 March 23 1977 March 26
1978 April 12 1979 April 2 1980 April 6
1981 April 3 1982 April 7  1983 April 7
1984 April 3  1985 April 7  1986 April 2
1987 March 28 1988 March 31 1989 Mar 29
1990 March 15  1991 March 29 1992 April 7
1993 April 11 1994 April 5 1995 April 2
1996 April 4 1997 March 26 1998 March 27
1999 April 5 2000 March 17 2001 April 6
2002 April 2 2003 April 2 2004 March 31
2005 April 9 2006 March 30 2007 April 1
2008 March 29 2009 April 1 2010 March 31
2011 March 29 2012 March 20 2013 April 9
2014 April 10 2015 April 10

The real math shows the real story and you don’t have to take my word for it. You can do the math yourself. I can prove to you that I looked at the matter closely –e.g., take a look at the link to the government’s “Data Source” above: notice that the government’s data for years 2003 and 2004 are repeated twice.

Using a thorough method of reckoning I verified the 4-April average bloom date. The government’s date is a correct average from 1921 to 2015, with this one caveat: the average number of days is 94.1 from the beginning of the year so on average the peak bloom falls on 3-Apr on leap years (on every 4th year when February has 29 days) and 4-April on common years.

More interesting is that the Smithsonian should have known that on average nothing has really changed over the years, either before or after 1950, marking the beginning of the last half of the 20th century. Here’s the facts:

Number of Years, 1921-1949: 29
Number of Years, 1950-2015: 66
Average number of days from beginning of year until peak bloom, 1921-1949: 94.3
Average number of days from beginning of year until peak bloom, 1950-2015: 94.0

We’re talking about Washington DC’s cherry blossoms reaching peak bloom on average over the 95 years since 1921 on, April 4th; and, also over the last half of the 20th century – the period during which global warming alarmists blame humanity for heating the globe and incidentally causing cherry blossoms to bloom too early – and, the same average number of days for the 29 years before that, beginning in 1921. Moreover, the trend is not helpful to AGW theorists either with peak bloom dates of, 9-April, 10-­April and 10-April for 2013, 2014 and 2015, respectively.

2015 was the coldest
January through March in the entire record
in the 10 Northeast States and DC ~Joseph D’Aleo, CCM

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