Global Warming Is Cupcake Science

Morning Masts~2 comment awaiting moderation AGW is the theory that humanity caused global warming in the 2nd half of the 20th century. AGW or global warming or climate change is the latest science de jour: Western wisdom on a stick. So far, federally-funded global warming research has been the best propaganda for bigger government that taxpayer money could ever buy.

Western science is to AGW theory as Stephanopoulos is to Clinton’s reputation for honesty and openness. There are homogeneous politically correct government solutions to every problem but the more things change the more everything stays the same: the best solution to society’s problems is still having the courage to shrink government power and allow more power to the people.

We all need a little sensitivity to what toxicologists refer to as the concept of hormesis. We see that socio-economic behavior is essentially, a hermetic response –e.g., a low dose of government may trigger a quixotic reaction for the better; but, the higher the dose of government you have the more you can expect the opposite response from what the government ostensibly wants to achieve. On some level, we all know this is true. Even so, we refuse to admit it and cultivate the crazy idea that government has the answer to all our problems.

“The most terrifying words in the English language are: I’m from the government and I’m here to help.” ~Ronald Reagan

What’s changed since the December 2009 Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen except that the Democrat party and the EU’s pick for US president, Al Gore, was defeated? Instead, the Left had to give a Nobel to a president who figured out years ago he had a rosier future in Leftist-liberal America as a Barrack not a Barry; and, from that time on, he no longer even bothered to hide in the closet his preference for communism over the concept of American exceptionalism. 

The market for the international trading of CO2-pollution indulgences may have gone Post Toastee like Solyndra and all of the global warming insiders may have flown off in their private jets, leaving Western governments to ponder the Maunder and rethink whether they really want to print more money to blow up the Tesla bubble and on windmills in the sky. Cap-and-trade is dead and blew up like a SpaceX rocket. 

I empathize with the global warming believers. History tells me that fear is entirely natural: superstition and ignorance is the human condition. It has been the ideas of personal liberty and self-overcoming that are exceptional and not normal. For the warming believers, communism and being told what to do and how to think feel just right; and, personal responsibility feels all wrong – is wrong! 

So, the rest of us will just have to plod along, taking all the risks and arrows in our backs and productively providing value to society, all the while getting leeched off of by those who refuse to buy into the free enterprise economy. Greece is a good example of where that will end.

The climate change crowd loves to project ahead at how horrible our future will be if we do not listen to their warnings. The problem is, all long term prediction, will probably prove wrong. This truism was captured pretty well by Michael Crichton as it relates to the global warming debate. What would it take to convince you about global warming? Michael Crichton essentially had the same question, when he advanced the hypothesis that, aliens cause global warming. That was about 12 years ago. Government scientists of global warming alarmism like Kevin Trenberth want to turn the scientific method on its head. They demand that the unconvinced prove humanity’s CO2 has not caused the globe to heat up. If that makes sense then perhaps Trenberth  should first prove to us skeptics that aliens are not the cause of global warming.

As Dr. Roy Spencer pointed out, the correlation between increases in the upper ocean temperatures and UFO sightings over the last half of the 20th century is better than 95%. I think Crichton was getting at the more subtle point though: that people can believe anything. Proving it is another matter. The fix was the genius of President Bush’s “thousand points of light,” celebrating the enduring strength free individuals over the deceivingly simple-minded certainty that is the state’s single torch of truth.

Leftist fascism aside, bias is at the core of it all. Just as China and Vietnam are role models for the Left in how to give away the economic benefits of capitalism without giving up power, Leftist-thinking academia is trying to figure out how to embrace the role of nature – nominally, changes in solar activity– as the dominant cause of all climate change, without admitting they’ve been wrong and not yielding power to the market-based economy that has seen the government-funded global warming king of academia has no clothes and has become increasingly irrelevant to the common good. 

This is our interesting time in human history and the history of Western civilization: a time when the misfits of a free enterprise capitalistic system of efficiently allocating scarce resources become the stars of too-big-to-fail government-funded academia. Would the scientific community of today argue that Pharaohs’ scientists ever published even a single study that was not biased? 

When  you consider that government climatologists already know what they are supposed to find and will find, employing various techniques to optimize mathematical models using moving averages and mean-shift filtering for augmenting, smoothing,  elimination of outliers and homogenization of gap-filled data, while changing variables and running simulations thousands of times to get the correct result, is it any wonder these same climatologists also deem the validation of their resulting reconstructions to be totally unnecessary? Wouldn’t you jealously guard the methods you used and then pour scorn on skeptical outsiders to keep the hoax and scare tactics of global warming alive, like your job and pension depends on it?

Blogger Is Hacked To Death In Bangladesh After Promoting Secular Thought ~NPR

The rights of the individual are under attack around the world and right here at home. At no time in our lifetimes has the government been more antagonistic to personal liberty and less tolerant to those who refuse to adopt the official, consensus of opinion, even on matters of science. Nevertheless, if you view the change in global average temperature over the past thirty years as mostly due to natural variation –e.g., nominally caused by solar activity, and therefore showing relatively little if any effect from a steady increase in the ppm of human-caused CO2 in the atmosphere, then the ’80’s and 90’s warming periods and ’02 to ’13 cold anomalies, together with the weak to little warming and cooling — that we now refer to as the hiatus is perfectly consistent with what we would expect. When things will change is anybody’s guess and in the meantime nothing is happening now nor during the last half of the 20th century that has not happened before with no human-forcing whatsoever.

Success may take some luck but the opportunity to participate in a chance to be successful takes a lot of work. In the real world if you don’t do the work no amount of luck will help and that’s your typical global warming-fearing, big government loving, democrat-voter, praying that faceless bureaucrats will flip a switch that will erase all of their bad decisions in life. How do you change their minds? It’s come down to force (see below) and, the exercise of power through the 47%’rs — who are obliged to give government whatever power is necessary to extort revenues from the productive. It has come down to liberal fascism not liberal science –e.g.,

During this era, they’ve gone from gentle nudging to stern warnings, to fearmongering, to conflating the predictive abilities of scientists with science itself, to launching ugly campaigns to shame and shut down anyone who deviates from liberal orthodoxy. If you haven’t been able to win over the public over in 25 years of intense political and cultural pressure, you are … down to two options: … revisit your strategy, open debate to a wide range of ideas … Or, you can try to force people to do what you want. ~David Harsanyi, The Federalist

We simply do not know what the 21st century holds in store for us. Even so, if I observe that nothing explains the level of certainty about AGW theory in the field of climatology that ultimately is not merely, cosmological, I get modded-out of a debate despite the obvious fact that, AGW theory can never be reduced to a falsifiable hypothesis. It is interesting to see what the AGW mania has done to the economy and where it’s taking us. We need to read up on why some societies have problems while others do not. Rather than inoculations to increase resistance to skeptics we should consider what causes Western scientists to require increased resistance. The cure is more good science to force the bad science out: we’re not getting that because government has something to gain from promoting bad science.

The IPCC is apparently confused about “dominate” versus “predominant.” AGW theory is dominant among Western scientists where the government-education machine dominates the discussion to the point of claiming a 97% consensus of opinion. For those outside the West, skepticism of AGW is the predominate mood. The view outside the West is that natural causes – nominally, solar activity – is the predominant cause of climate change. Those outside the West liken climatology to the ancient science of astrology and see Western climatologists as being opportunistic charlatans dominated by politics.

If we really want to help people, whether they live in Third World countries or in Baltimore Maryland’s, impoverished west side – and, no matter whether we’re dealing with systemic socio-political issues in a culture war effecting the health and wellbeing of the people or addressing supposed scientific-based concerns of an entrenched, Leftist-thinking establishment about the looming disastrous effects of global warming on all species on Earth – we’d all be well-advised to heed this simple reality and pragmatic advice:

Where ethnic conflicts have eroded trust, we should encourage decentralization. Ideally, “good enough” governance would include providing some public services such as healthcare and primary education that would not threaten the local elite’s ability to extract resources and stay in power. Some degree of economic growth might be possible provided we recognize that these rulers always require their cut of profits. ~Stephen D. Krasner (“Why we aren’t winning wars”)

The prevailing theory at work here is that if you throw enough money at something like… models (and when it comes to climate models the bill is in the billions), then surely these models must be worth something and even if they don’t work and maybe never will, we’ve spent too much to walk away. There is, however, this unfortunate predilection of human nature of throwing good money after bad because it’s the easy thing to do, especially when it’s someone else’s money. The problem is, nothing good will ever come of it. Global warming is not the problem. Fear of global warming is the problem. No matter how much money has been spent on models it does not change the fact that the models will not solve the problem.

It does no good, no matter what fashionable name you give it, to gather all of the employees onto the rooftops of Western businesses every morning before work to collectively chant in the directions of China, India, Brazil and Russia that we should all strive for more renewable energy. Looking at the sainthood of the climate change clergy, determined as they are to protect us from us, the egocentricity and grandiosity on display is drowned out a bit by the cognitive empathy of their collective sociopathy.

If elevation of reason is the goal, the art of persuasion is a weak reed when keepers of the government-funded AGW flame don the blinders of true believers because they care more about ephemeral outcomes than the concrete reality of science.

Everything government touches turns to crap. ~Ringo Starr




 Update: 2015-7-2

About Wagathon

Hot World Syndrome—fear of a hotter, more intimidating world than it actually is prompting a desire for more protection than is warranted by any actual threat. A Chance Meeting– We toured south along the Bicentennial Bike Trail in the Summer of 1980, working up appetites covering ~70 miles per day and staying at hiker/biker campgrounds at night along the Oregon/California coast (they were 50¢ a day at that time). The day's ride over, and after setting up tents, hitting the showers, and making a run to a close-by store, it was time to relax. The third in our little bicycle tour group, Tom, was about 30 yards away conversing with another knot of riders and treating himself to an entire cheesecake for dinner. He probably figured Jim and I would joke about what a pig he was eating that whole pie and decided to eat among strangers. Three hours later after sharing stories and remarking on a few coincidences that turned up here and there, Tom and one of the former strangers realized they were cousins, meeting in this most unlikely place for the first time. ~Mac
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1 Response to Global Warming Is Cupcake Science

  1. Excellent post. Hits the nail on the head squarely.

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