Climatology and the Volkswagan Diesel Scandal


Why The Outright Cynical Deceit?

Interesting parallel between VW’s diesel scandal and global warming. VW was not able to make diesel cars that gave the results they were after and still meet pollution standards so they used software that gave them the results they wanted. What’s illegal in the automotive industry and immoral by any standard in the business world in general is, however, common practice in the field of climatology, even despite the fact they’ve been caught red handed. “In whose professional world,” Mike Wallace asks (see, Touchy Feely Science – one chart suggests there’s a ‘pHraud’ in omitting Ocean Acidification data in Congressional testimony), “is it acceptable to omit the majority of the data and also to not disclose the omission to any other soul or Congressional body?”

When things don’t make sense, there are many possibilities –e.g., we’re all too stupid or everyone else is or we don’t know as much as we think we do or there are powerful ulterior motives underlying why people say and believe what they do even though reality paints a different picture or maybe some are cheating when it comes to describing reality. Or, it’s all of these things and also because we simply believe what we want to believe, without facts and despite alternative explanations and evidence to the contrary, which pretty much explains belief in global warming, i.e., it has become a religion.

One of my motivations for completing the book was finding to what extent ‘climate change’ had become a religion… I have tried to emphasise that I really dont think the science is as settled as many pretend… you can’t understand how the ocean works from studying one region – just as I know that you can’t make any solid conclusions about how the climate works from studying just the short period since 1960, which is what many people are doing. ~Alan Longhurst [link Longhurst to download the book]

“The depths of this fraud is breathtaking, but
completely consistent with the fraudulent profession
which has become known as climate science. ~Tony Heller

Moreover, the worst is yet to come. As with the VW scandal, AGW, the theory that humanity’s CO2 (read, the modern-world and American capitalism’s CO2) is responsible for catastrophic global warming over the last half of the 20th century, has not only blackened the image of climate science. Government’s ulterior motives in its funding and use of global warming for ideological purposes has given a black eye to both science in general and Western academia in particular. No one is excusing VW’s calculated duplicity nor should anyone fail to see that the Left has willfully undermined honesty in science, the economy and the entire Western government-education complex.

More worrying than deceptive automotive marketing and manufacturing is the  government propaganda machine that singles out the energy and automobile industry. The root of the problem is a Leftist government that is preaching anti-business liberal Utopianism and the use of the Tobacco-Model of taxation to further climate hucksterism. The Left’s goal is to go after all of the evildoers and to protect people from themselves, whether it’s from Wal-Mart’s low prices, fatty burgers, sugary big cokes, predatory home loans, evil insurance companies, second-hand smoke, cell phones… CO2, too much NOx.

Government even taxes businesses per person every time they hire someone, not just the profits, if any they make, that businesses are able to generate by virtue of providing goods and services that people actually want and are willing to pay for with their own hard-earned dollars. To use the Tobacco-model revenues to fund it’s Utopia the Left demonizes big oil and cars but it also sees evil everywhere: the people are the problem!

“EPA played politics with the regulatory process by trying to manipulate rulemaking deadlines to avoid a public backlash close to the 2012 Presidential and 2014 midterm elections, and to push implementation of the rules to the next Administration.” (Senate EPW Oversight Report [link])

The ability to ride a bicycle and to enjoy cycling for fun and enjoyment on a regular basis is more a sign of wealth in the U.S. than a necessity as it may be in a rickshaw or horse and buggy culture. Many of us have an automobile to enable us to take a bike to someplace nice to ride as part of a healthy alternative to other options for staying fit. Many of these other options probably would use less energy and thereby release less CO2 into the atmosphere. Does that make us weekend cyclists guilty of warming the globe and killing polar bears?

According to the global warming religion, the answer is, Yes, we are the evildoers. It’s a shame our taxes are going to fund the ideologically-motivated climate pseudoscience that underlies the global warming religion instead of allowing people to keep more of their earnings for themselves, to spend on what they consider to be productive purposes, instead of having their blood, sweat and sacrifice siphoned off to grow more government and more lying and dissembling politicians and evergreen hypocritical Leftist bureaucrats who add zero to the GDP.

Will it bring about the death of public faith in the promise of universal education? Like VW, we learned Western academia is involved in fraud too. Global warming is nothing but a hoax and a scare tactic.




Update: 25 September 2015
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Socially Awesome Penguin


No one advocates paving over the world. Except for government scientists who defend their placement of official thermometers in urban areas, no one disputes the existence of the UHI (Urban Heat Island) effect. Still, there has been no global warming going on 2 decades and nearly 3 decades depending on the data set used to arrive at an average temperature of the entire globe.

More incredibly, in the real world where we actually live and not the digitized world of global warming alarmists, the concept of a global average temperature is nothing more than crazed reductionist logic and makes no more sense than an average of telephone numbers in New York City. Russian scientists believe we’re headed toward decades of global cooling due to decreased solar activity and sure enough, the sun has gone quiet.

The real Earth doesn’t work like the Earth in the models. The Earth’s atmosphere doesn’t actually work like a greenhouse either; and, pretending it does leaves a thoughtful world of using analogies to convey knowledge for a new home in a strange land governed by misleading government-sanctioned propaganda.

The only thing we know with any degree of certainty is that in the final analysis Western science failed Western civilization. The education complex became nothing more than a too-big-to-fail, self-perpetuating government bureaucracy living off of the blood, sweat and sacrifice of the productive.

Uncertainty plays a huge role in this issue. It’s not that we expect disaster, it’s that the uncertainty is said to offer the possibility of disaster: implausible, but high consequence. Somewhere it has to be like the possible asteroid impact: Live with it. ~Richard Lindzen

Perhaps the Left will someday discover that individual liberty is a virtuous step towards the liberation of humanity – along with abundant energy – and, refrain from engaging in the banality of fetishized universalities like, all of humanity’s CO2 is bad and global warming will destroy all species on Earth. The parallels between Fukushima and global warming mania are chilling:

I should finally add that, the most affected areas are experiencing radiation doses that are smaller than natural radiation doses in many areas of the world which have been inhabited since prehistoric times by healthy people. (See, “Who killed Hamako…)

Obviously some do believe more not less CO2 is the devil’s work and can only lead to disaster. They must believe plants breath in pollutants to survive and humans breath out pollutants. The war against CO2 has turned into a war against humanity by conservationist catastrophists, radical environmentalists and fundamentalist global warming alarmists, all facilitated by socialist Western academia. Humanity needs more not less energy.

Nuclear power plants are a cost-effective adaptive strategy for either a planet suffering from man-made climate change or a naturally warming world that will eventually run short of fossil fuels. Nuclear energy is the world’s biggest source of non-fossil energy and emits virtually no greenhouse gases. The First World has generally turned away from nuclear power as activist lawsuits have driven up regulatory costs. ~Fred Singer, et al. (Unstoppable Global Warming: Every 1,500 Years)

Do conservationists want more trees and less humans? If so, they should swoon for more not less global warming: “Palm trees swayed on the green shores of Antarctica 50 million years ago while temperatures soared above 20C, a study has shown,” says Mark Prigg of the Daily Mail when talking about researchers who drilled down to reveal secrets hidden in the mud.

One American asked to name the greatest invention of the twentieth century, answered insulation. He’d grown up in a poorly insulated nineteenth-century mountain ranch house and it was his job to cut the family’s firewood. Insulation is cheap, safe, sustainable, and helps reduce energy requirements whether the climate is warming or cooling. It is a fine no-regrets technology of the install-it-and-forget-it variety. More insulation in our buildings is a good idea whether the climate changes much or not. ~Fred Singer (Ibid.)

Quixotically, the most significant contribution during the decarbonization-fixated rule of the Obama administration over the last 7 years toward stabilization of an economy that has been clobbered by Leftist-liberal tinkering — from monetary policies that have driven the cost of capital to zero and fiscal policies that have inflated the currency, along with a greater centralization of federal power, expansion of the entitlement state, crippling of local policing, creating racial division and the unleashing of radical religious fundamentalism in the Mideast — has been the recent drop in oil prices.


Updated: 2015-9-19


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The Global Warming Mishmash Heats Up!

On Dog Hill

We now know the facts. Return on investment for government-subsidized solar- and wind-generated electricity is a minus 29%

What we don’t have a good handle on is how much of this market interference results in increased inflation or decreased GDP? It’s a given that Peter’s Ox is being gored but there is nothing of value in Paul’s pocket because the weight of government’s thumb on the scales of free enterprise results only in fewer goods at higher prices.

In exchange for the loss of productivity and jobs and the misallocation of scarce resources, the Left can go to bed at night feeling good about saving the world as birds are being incinerated by solar power plants in the Mohave desert or turned to mincemeat in giant spinning wind turbines.

Concerning the next (11th) meeting of the Kyoto protocol members, to be held in Paris this December (hopefully avoiding the embarrassingly cold winters that seem to follow these meetings around the globe), Matt Ridley says that getting international agreement about limiting global temperatures to a 2C increase is essentially a theologically debate:

Given that nobody knows for sure what those levels were, how sensitive to industrial emissions global temperatures are, how emissions will change, when the 2C threshold would be reached, how much natural climate change there will be, or how much damage (or benefit) two degrees of global warming would cause, this is as practical as arguing about the nature of the trinity.

Is the high cost of gas caused by evil capitalism and gouging businessmen or anti-energy Leftists? Answer: neither: businesses not government brought an abundance of natural gas to the marketplace, bringing cleaner energy and greater fuel independence and to America, causing the OPEC oil cartel to increase production and lower prices on oil to squeeze out Western capitalism.

The big problem with anti-energy Leftists’ message that the end of the world is just around the corner is that disaster never comes soon enough. For skeptics of global warming, the continuous peddling of fears of impending calamity despite the facts is a hoax and the public finally feels it’s been lied to. Government-funded bad science may win headlines in the beginning but in the end it’s always truth that’s most appealing.

If they’re offering no climate change then fear of change has become their new reality. So now they long for a stable climate even if at the cost of economic instability, just as the Left longs for peace in the Middle East even as radical Islam cuts off heads and looks for Jews to burn. The Left is making war on free enterprise at the cost of individual rights, freedom of choice and the spirit it takes to overcome barriers to growth.

Official government global warming orthodoxy is a betrayal of science, undermining logic and suspending conscience. Danger: self-defeating bureaucracy at work: driven by a nihilism that would condemn the third and developing worlds to misery, poverty and death. The Left has denied nature. Still, the global warming hoax persists so long as the alarmists succeed in treating scientific skeptics like the church treated Galileo, the Greeks treated Socrates and German academia treated Einstein and the Jews.

Dead and dying Old Europe, Western academia, the EPA, the Democrat party, all abandoned reason to embrace the politics of global warming. Free market capitalist economies have lowest emissions due to more efficient production. So, in the Left’s pogrom against CO2, we will go poorer and dirtier and the null hypothesis that all global warming is natural is rejected because that’s how government climate science works!

There is a 100-year supply of recoverable natural gas in the US alone but the anti-energy, BIG Government program of the Left would rather abort the baby, sacrifice truth and honesty and if that is not alarming enough, replace science with politics.

The aggressive tactics against CO2 show that the EPA is an anti-business enabler of a hard line takeover by the Left of US energy and industry. The EPA’s labeling of CO2 as a poison is an example of pseudo-intellectual, anti-business McCarthyism by liberal doomsayers of a fiat government.

Facts are facts: we have reached a TIPPING POINT of sorts: global warming stopped nearly two decades ago. Fear in the ’90s of what was to come by 2015 has come and gone. Many scientists outside of the Western government-education complex now see the coming of a cooling phase ahead, due to what is now better understood as the cyclical nature of the sun and decrease in solar activity that has been underway in our solar system for years and could continue for decades if not a hundred years or more. As for CATASTROPHIC predictions of global warming? No! Since 1998 there has been global cooling. Since 2002 there has been no global warming and in recent years we have seen extremely cold winters. What the world may well see looking back from the year 2030 is that while carbon dioxide levels continued to increase around the world the average temperature of the globe plateaued and then went down, not up.

Try as they might the Left has been unable to silence the courageous few who stood up to the Western-led, UN-IPCC consensus of opinion about CO2 being the cause of global warming around the globe. Those who refused to dishonor science have in the meantime been rewarded by the nature of things with the passage of time. For example, the famous hurricane hunter, William Gray may have been run over by a truck blaring Leftist global warming propaganda but he and the truth survived:

…the global temperature graph for the past century. Notice how, after rising steadily in the early 20th century, in 1940 the temperature suddenly levels off. No – it goes down! For the next 35 years! If the planet is getting steadily warmer due to Industrial Age greenhouse gases, why did it get cooler when industries began belching out carbon dioxide at full tilt at the start of World War II?

Now look at the ice in Antarctica: Getting thicker in places!

Sea level rise? It’s actually dropping around certain islands in the Pacific and Indian oceans.

There are all these… anomalies… computer programs can’t even predict the weather in two weeks, much less 100 years… They sit in this ivory tower, playing around, and they don’t tell us if this is going to be a hot summer coming up. Why not? Because the models are no damn good! (See, Joel Achenbach’s May 2006 interview with William Gray)

“It is the greatest scam in history. I am amazed, appalled and highly offended by it. Global Warming; It is a SCAM,” says John Coleman, founder of The Weather Channel. In challenging the UN-IPCC and derailing the momentum of the Left in support of the Kyoto Protocol, it can now be seen that George Bush saved the country from the gore of radical environmentalism.

The arguments of the global warming faithful have come to mimic in a way the hockey stick computer program of their messianic leader, Michael Mann – no matter what the facts are, they’ve been programed to spit out the same shtick. It took years for concerned scientists to ferret out the data Mann used to construct his hockey stick graph for the UN-IPCC’s disinformation campaign of consensus about the dangers of CO2. We finally learned, however, that the joke was on everyone: scientists discovered Mann’s program did nothing but produce hockey stick graphs, over and over again, irrespective of the data. The government has been paying for filing cabinets full of worthless global warming pseudo-science like this for years.

My whole involvement has always been driven by concerns about the corruption of science. Like many people I was dragged into this by the Hockey Stick. The Hockey Stick is an extraordinary claim which requires extraordinary evidence, so I started reading round the subject. And it soon became clear that the first extraordinary thing about the evidence for the Hockey Stick was how extraordinarily weak it was, and the second extraordinary thing was how desperate its defenders were to hide this fact. The Hockey Stick is obviously wrong. Climategate 2011 shows that even many of its most outspoken public defenders know it is obviously wrong. And yet it goes on being published and defended year after year. Do I expect you to publicly denounce the Hockey Stick as obvious drivel? Well yes, that’s what you should do. It is the job of scientists of integrity to expose pathological science. It is a litmus test of whether climate scientists are prepared to stand up against the bullying defenders of pathology in their midst. (Jonathan Jones)

What with the AGW True Believers issuing death threats and pushing climate porn on the children, how refreshing it was to see genius teenage skeptic, Kristen Byrnes ‘school’ Al Gore in her term paper (Ponder the Maunder). Continued global warming fear mongering only makes Western academia look like Chicken Little, pumped up with hot air – LOSING – as the Earth moves from no global warming to a cooling trend. Byrnes’ example gives us all a lesson in scientific integrity while exposing Gore as the Leftists’ proverbial, Emperor who parades around the school grounds with no clothes. Dr. Freeman Dyson is not alone in his belief that, “environmentalism has replaced socialism as the leading secular religion,” and that scientists must rediscover how real science is done.

It’s a kind of scientific integrity, a principle of scientific thought that corresponds to a kind of utter honesty – a kind of leaning over backwards. For example, if you’re doing an experiment, you should report everything that you think might make it invalid – not only what you think is right about it: other causes that could possibly explain your results; and things you thought of that you’ve eliminated by some other experiment, and how they worked – to make sure the other fellow can tell they have been eliminated.

Details that could throw doubt on your interpretation must be given, if you know them. You must do the best you can – if you know anything at all wrong, or possibly wrong – to explain it. If you make a theory, for example, and advertise it, or put it out, then you must also put down all the facts that disagree with it, as well as those that agree with it. There is also a more subtle problem. When you have put a lot of ideas together to make an elaborate theory, you want to make sure, when explaining what it fits, that those things it fits are not just the things that gave you the idea for the theory; but that the finished theory makes something else come out right, in addition. (Richard Feynman)

The time is now for lovers of freedom to choose their futures. During this time of some of the greatest challenges Western Civilization must face for its very survival – from the malevolent forces of radical Islam, radical environmentalism and the anti-humanism of liberal fascism to the social psychosis of the mainstream media’s advocacy journalism – now is not the time to sacrifice the constitution, the economy, capitalism, liberty and the scientific method just because the NYT declares CO2 is a dangerous pollutant that causes global warming. Integrity in science has never been so important.

Steyn’s book [A Disgrace to the Profession] reminds everyone of Climategate, why the public doesn’t trust climate scientists and aren’t buying their consensus. ~Judith Curry


Update: 2015-8-13


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Global Warming Falls to Earth

Falling Through The Looking Glass

Leftists have been waging jihad on America since the 60s. Sacré bleu – Al Gore’s pseudoscience-based crockumentary about global warming is essentially a Unibomber Manifesto about the failure of modernity, individualism and the free enterprise economy.

Western government scientists that opine about our global warming nightmare wouldn’t dream of considering all of the misery, poverty & death caused by secular socialism. Dead & dying old Europe that capitalism saved from itself seems to be fit now for little else than incubating a Leftist ideology that can be used by liberal fascists to undermine Western civilization.

Socialism and fear of global warming and of capitalism and of existentialism has become the hair that blinds the eye of the productive. America is becoming another banana republic and until we put an end to the politics of global warming alarmism by restoring the scientific method to its rightful place along with reason and logic we will build nothing of any lasting value here. We will continue to obsess about runaway global warming as we wander around aimlessly in the Golden Goose Graveyard for another 40 years of no warming, perhaps punctuated by decades of global cooling.

Greenhouse gases have become EPA “regulated pollutants” under the Clean Air Act for one reason only: it serves the interests of runaway government. There is nothing unique or particularly complicated about climate change. It cannot be regulated by us humans. We humans cannot regulate the sun any more than we can harness solar power without robbing Peter to pay Paul.

While the real-world consequences of Leftist ideology has been a record of misery, poverty and death, the thermageddon prophesized by Al Gore never happened. And yet, the government-education complex keeps the lie alive sewing its seeds of fear about a coming global warming doomsday.

US Industry knows it’s the liberal fascists who are coming and it’s the increased cost of the energy we all must have to survive that is fueling the Leftistist-liberal bureaucracy. Like Western hothouse flowers these superstitious global warming facilitators of alarm have never known the misery, suffering and death of energy-deprivation or about providing value to society in a free enterprise economy.

The reality that is clearly understood by scientists outside the Western academic establishment is that the sun remains anomalously quiet as Earth cools. Not surprisingly, Earth warmed during the last half of the 20th century when the sun was anomalously active. Russian scientists are learning more about what lies beneath the surface of the sun just as we are learning what lies beneath the surface of our culture, society, ourselves and Western academia’s climate change science.

The bleakest, most dire and worrisome shocker about global warming alamism is that the EPA and Western academia prefer politics to science. While there is no safe global cooling level – the cooler it gets the more people die – global warming has always been very good for humanity. Nevertheless, socialist global warming fearmongering has reached biblical proportions and that is the real calamity.

The charlatans of Western academia have proven one thing: man’s dream of rising above superstition and ignorance remains elusive. Failure to acknowledge CO2 is a fertilizer and not a pollutant is evidence of a moral Kristallnacht… EPA global warming alarmism is the sound of glass shattering as Western civilization falls. Sure, sure, the Left must hate anything with a face that breathes out evil CO2 but why does the Left hate the trees? Trees love our CO2.

The Medium is the Message. As America prospered Leftists became ever more hysterical about imagined problems and less concerned about real problems. The UN-IPCC and Western academia are to solving real problems as British daytime soap operas about doctors’ wives are to the delivery of medicine.

Until recently, the cascade effect has been working in the direction of supporting a belief in catastrophic global warming… Historians, long hence, will surely have a fascinating time analysing the rise and fall of the cult… Even now it is possible to detect close parallels with the pattern of many traditional doomsday cults. And, it is particularly interesting to note that scientists are just as susceptible to such cults as non-scientists. (Dr. Philip Stott,  20 Aug. 2008)



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Did Global Warming Kill the Weatherman


It’s only sensible to suspect the obvious existence of an unstated agenda is afoot when you realize that all government-funded climate models uniformly ignore the role of the sun. As time goes by a simple truth emerges that explains it all: “Everything government touches turns to crap.” ~Ringo Starr

Why the willful ignorance among Western scientists about the role of the sun when it comes to explaining climate change? Russian scientists are not blinded by CO2 and based on their models, we’re heading into another ice age in 15 years. The answer is simple: like the Greeks, the government-education complex in the West thinks like Greeks.

The Greeks only want to dine out at the Big Government Free Lunch cafe. Their “No” vote about the fate of the Euro in their own country is nothing more than a prideful way of admitting that no economy can continue to pull huge loads of dead weight without someone else continually picking up the tab.

The result in Greece is the culmination of the Left’s decision to defrock morality, and common decency and for having its way with the Golden Goose. It will take years to flush out their dysfunctional society given the dented-up political and economic system that has been so severely corrupted by lies, superstition and the envy of government junkies.

The official Greek medium of exchange is now grounded in a Leftist ponzi scheme economic shell game. The Greek’s liberal Utopia has become a blame game of how and why their cash for clunkers Euro-communism resulted in economic chaos.

Amazingly, the real problem of Global warming is that the self-dealing Weathermen of Western academia engaged political fearmongering to line their own pockets. Fears about global warming have given the liberal fascists’ demonic possession of the Leftist mob.

Oh no, says the experts of the American-Australian Chemical Society of Pale Ale Brewers and Hourglass Makers Against Digital Data: humanity’s CO2 is causing global warming! They are welcome to their beliefs. Differing beliefs about unproven AGW theory is not a problem; however, government action based on such beliefs has become the tyranny of the Left.

The Left wants unlimited power: (1) to make you do whatever they want; and (2), to change the meaning of ‘whatever’ whenever they wish. As science debates global warming it may be that all of it is entirely natural. Meanwhile, UK’s elderly may again be forced to burn books this winter to stay warm.

Every year, global warming charlatans predict we will again experience the, “bizarre and unpredictable weather phenomenon known as summer.” When in the maturation of Western civilization did the Left decide to favor the art of fearmongering for personal gain over science? When did Leftists depart from the ideal of community-based altruism to become simple doomsday purveyors of mass mania?

The Left disparages business and all who work in the free enterprise economy who serve broad community interests by producing the goods and services others desire. Like the Greeks, a growing bureaucrat army that is better paid than the productive people who pay the taxes is evidence of economic, societal, cultural and moral decline.

The Left-right divide is about love of freedom, respect for the individual liberty of others and faith in the power personal responsibility. Freakolitics is the voting by the Left to grow the bureaucracy — even if its growth strangles the economy — and, choosing liberal fascism over individual liberty and freedom of enterprise.

Ascribing ‘global warming’ to humans ignores history and natural causes and creates charlatans with ‘solutions’ to nonexistent problems. They want us all to take a powerfrul drug that many nations have already tried and never recovered from: Ethyl 2-Methyl t-Butyl Triethyl n-Propylester 4,4-Diethoxy Hex-2-LibSocialism.

What is Liberal Fascism? It is using global warming. politics and fearmongering to take over the industrial base. True Believers of Global Warming and Leftist ideology are worshippers of a transitive logic whereby government assumes more and more power by sucking it away from individuals. Deep down, Leftist ideology has never been about reform but rather the Left’s view that a free man cannot be trusted.

Just listen to the lamentations of the sufferers of humanity’s global warming that was captured so well by Knut Hamsun (Hunger):

With steadily increasing rage, I ground my teeth in despair, and with sobs and oaths I went on and roared wildly, paying no attention to the people going by. I started once more to punish my flesh, ran my forehead deliberately against lampposts, drove my fingernails deep into the backs of my hands, bit my tongue madly every time it failed to pronounce clearly and then laughed wildly whenever I caused a fairly good pain.

Such is the life of the sufferers of Hot World Syndrome. Won’t you give so these poor unfortunates can find peace? Just a small donation will help us protect these people from the ravages of CO2. For just a few pennies a day, these simple folks can be resettled into a virgin area where there are no distractions like light, heat, air conditioning, clean water, sewage treatment and different foods from around the world.


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Global Warming Is Cupcake Science

Morning Masts~2 comment awaiting moderation AGW is the theory that humanity caused global warming in the 2nd half of the 20th century. AGW or global warming or climate change is the latest science de jour: Western wisdom on a stick. So far, federally-funded global warming research has been the best propaganda for bigger government that taxpayer money could ever buy.

Western science is to AGW theory as Stephanopoulos is to Clinton’s reputation for honesty and openness. There are homogeneous politically correct government solutions to every problem but the more things change the more everything stays the same: the best solution to society’s problems is still having the courage to shrink government power and allow more power to the people.

We all need a little sensitivity to what toxicologists refer to as the concept of hormesis. We see that socio-economic behavior is essentially, a hermetic response –e.g., a low dose of government may trigger a quixotic reaction for the better; but, the higher the dose of government you have the more you can expect the opposite response from what the government ostensibly wants to achieve. On some level, we all know this is true. Even so, we refuse to admit it and cultivate the crazy idea that government has the answer to all our problems.

“The most terrifying words in the English language are: I’m from the government and I’m here to help.” ~Ronald Reagan

What’s changed since the December 2009 Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen except that the Democrat party and the EU’s pick for US president, Al Gore, was defeated? Instead, the Left had to give a Nobel to a president who figured out years ago he had a rosier future in Leftist-liberal America as a Barrack not a Barry; and, from that time on, he no longer even bothered to hide in the closet his preference for communism over the concept of American exceptionalism. 

The market for the international trading of CO2-pollution indulgences may have gone Post Toastee like Solyndra and all of the global warming insiders may have flown off in their private jets, leaving Western governments to ponder the Maunder and rethink whether they really want to print more money to blow up the Tesla bubble and on windmills in the sky. Cap-and-trade is dead and blew up like a SpaceX rocket. 

I empathize with the global warming believers. History tells me that fear is entirely natural: superstition and ignorance is the human condition. It has been the ideas of personal liberty and self-overcoming that are exceptional and not normal. For the warming believers, communism and being told what to do and how to think feel just right; and, personal responsibility feels all wrong – is wrong! 

So, the rest of us will just have to plod along, taking all the risks and arrows in our backs and productively providing value to society, all the while getting leeched off of by those who refuse to buy into the free enterprise economy. Greece is a good example of where that will end.

The climate change crowd loves to project ahead at how horrible our future will be if we do not listen to their warnings. The problem is, all long term prediction, will probably prove wrong. This truism was captured pretty well by Michael Crichton as it relates to the global warming debate. What would it take to convince you about global warming? Michael Crichton essentially had the same question, when he advanced the hypothesis that, aliens cause global warming. That was about 12 years ago. Government scientists of global warming alarmism like Kevin Trenberth want to turn the scientific method on its head. They demand that the unconvinced prove humanity’s CO2 has not caused the globe to heat up. If that makes sense then perhaps Trenberth  should first prove to us skeptics that aliens are not the cause of global warming.

As Dr. Roy Spencer pointed out, the correlation between increases in the upper ocean temperatures and UFO sightings over the last half of the 20th century is better than 95%. I think Crichton was getting at the more subtle point though: that people can believe anything. Proving it is another matter. The fix was the genius of President Bush’s “thousand points of light,” celebrating the enduring strength free individuals over the deceivingly simple-minded certainty that is the state’s single torch of truth.

Leftist fascism aside, bias is at the core of it all. Just as China and Vietnam are role models for the Left in how to give away the economic benefits of capitalism without giving up power, Leftist-thinking academia is trying to figure out how to embrace the role of nature – nominally, changes in solar activity– as the dominant cause of all climate change, without admitting they’ve been wrong and not yielding power to the market-based economy that has seen the government-funded global warming king of academia has no clothes and has become increasingly irrelevant to the common good. 

This is our interesting time in human history and the history of Western civilization: a time when the misfits of a free enterprise capitalistic system of efficiently allocating scarce resources become the stars of too-big-to-fail government-funded academia. Would the scientific community of today argue that Pharaohs’ scientists ever published even a single study that was not biased? 

When  you consider that government climatologists already know what they are supposed to find and will find, employing various techniques to optimize mathematical models using moving averages and mean-shift filtering for augmenting, smoothing,  elimination of outliers and homogenization of gap-filled data, while changing variables and running simulations thousands of times to get the correct result, is it any wonder these same climatologists also deem the validation of their resulting reconstructions to be totally unnecessary? Wouldn’t you jealously guard the methods you used and then pour scorn on skeptical outsiders to keep the hoax and scare tactics of global warming alive, like your job and pension depends on it?

Blogger Is Hacked To Death In Bangladesh After Promoting Secular Thought ~NPR

The rights of the individual are under attack around the world and right here at home. At no time in our lifetimes has the government been more antagonistic to personal liberty and less tolerant to those who refuse to adopt the official, consensus of opinion, even on matters of science. Nevertheless, if you view the change in global average temperature over the past thirty years as mostly due to natural variation –e.g., nominally caused by solar activity, and therefore showing relatively little if any effect from a steady increase in the ppm of human-caused CO2 in the atmosphere, then the ’80’s and 90’s warming periods and ’02 to ’13 cold anomalies, together with the weak to little warming and cooling — that we now refer to as the hiatus is perfectly consistent with what we would expect. When things will change is anybody’s guess and in the meantime nothing is happening now nor during the last half of the 20th century that has not happened before with no human-forcing whatsoever.

Success may take some luck but the opportunity to participate in a chance to be successful takes a lot of work. In the real world if you don’t do the work no amount of luck will help and that’s your typical global warming-fearing, big government loving, democrat-voter, praying that faceless bureaucrats will flip a switch that will erase all of their bad decisions in life. How do you change their minds? It’s come down to force (see below) and, the exercise of power through the 47%’rs — who are obliged to give government whatever power is necessary to extort revenues from the productive. It has come down to liberal fascism not liberal science –e.g.,

During this era, they’ve gone from gentle nudging to stern warnings, to fearmongering, to conflating the predictive abilities of scientists with science itself, to launching ugly campaigns to shame and shut down anyone who deviates from liberal orthodoxy. If you haven’t been able to win over the public over in 25 years of intense political and cultural pressure, you are … down to two options: … revisit your strategy, open debate to a wide range of ideas … Or, you can try to force people to do what you want. ~David Harsanyi, The Federalist

We simply do not know what the 21st century holds in store for us. Even so, if I observe that nothing explains the level of certainty about AGW theory in the field of climatology that ultimately is not merely, cosmological, I get modded-out of a debate despite the obvious fact that, AGW theory can never be reduced to a falsifiable hypothesis. It is interesting to see what the AGW mania has done to the economy and where it’s taking us. We need to read up on why some societies have problems while others do not. Rather than inoculations to increase resistance to skeptics we should consider what causes Western scientists to require increased resistance. The cure is more good science to force the bad science out: we’re not getting that because government has something to gain from promoting bad science.

The IPCC is apparently confused about “dominate” versus “predominant.” AGW theory is dominant among Western scientists where the government-education machine dominates the discussion to the point of claiming a 97% consensus of opinion. For those outside the West, skepticism of AGW is the predominate mood. The view outside the West is that natural causes – nominally, solar activity – is the predominant cause of climate change. Those outside the West liken climatology to the ancient science of astrology and see Western climatologists as being opportunistic charlatans dominated by politics.

If we really want to help people, whether they live in Third World countries or in Baltimore Maryland’s, impoverished west side – and, no matter whether we’re dealing with systemic socio-political issues in a culture war effecting the health and wellbeing of the people or addressing supposed scientific-based concerns of an entrenched, Leftist-thinking establishment about the looming disastrous effects of global warming on all species on Earth – we’d all be well-advised to heed this simple reality and pragmatic advice:

Where ethnic conflicts have eroded trust, we should encourage decentralization. Ideally, “good enough” governance would include providing some public services such as healthcare and primary education that would not threaten the local elite’s ability to extract resources and stay in power. Some degree of economic growth might be possible provided we recognize that these rulers always require their cut of profits. ~Stephen D. Krasner (“Why we aren’t winning wars”)

The prevailing theory at work here is that if you throw enough money at something like… models (and when it comes to climate models the bill is in the billions), then surely these models must be worth something and even if they don’t work and maybe never will, we’ve spent too much to walk away. There is, however, this unfortunate predilection of human nature of throwing good money after bad because it’s the easy thing to do, especially when it’s someone else’s money. The problem is, nothing good will ever come of it. Global warming is not the problem. Fear of global warming is the problem. No matter how much money has been spent on models it does not change the fact that the models will not solve the problem.

It does no good, no matter what fashionable name you give it, to gather all of the employees onto the rooftops of Western businesses every morning before work to collectively chant in the directions of China, India, Brazil and Russia that we should all strive for more renewable energy. Looking at the sainthood of the climate change clergy, determined as they are to protect us from us, the egocentricity and grandiosity on display is drowned out a bit by the cognitive empathy of their collective sociopathy.

If elevation of reason is the goal, the art of persuasion is a weak reed when keepers of the government-funded AGW flame don the blinders of true believers because they care more about ephemeral outcomes than the concrete reality of science.

Everything government touches turns to crap. ~Ringo Starr




 Update: 2015-7-2
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The Climate Change Paradox

Red Apple-White-Black.Untitled

When Academia Became Irrelevant

Public education has become the least essential and most anachronistic of government institutions. That’s the lesson plan of global warming alarmism and building a road back to relevance apparently has been outsourced to outside the West. The gaping credibility abyss yawns widely ahead and we may not be this way again or any better able than we are now to avoid the well-trodden path that leads to the death of civilizations.

Fingering the real lying liars of the Global Warming Debate is a difficult topic to broach and harder still is knowing the global warming debate is just the tip of the iceberg — just a subset of the real problem: the increasing irrelevancy of government-funded education (at least at the federal level). No one wants to be honest about it yet but if it’s not addressed it’ll drag us down like a stone.

We as a society have a problem. We must address the Climate Change Paradox. If the predictors of global warming are correct, then they have solved the simulation problem –i.e., the computer models they possess must now be clear and accurate reproductions of nature. However, to believe there are so many — but, only in Western academia — who have successfully digitized faithful copies of nature is, irrational! Alan Turing may have invented the machine capable of deciphering a Nazi machine but none of us humans – not even Western school teachers – have yet to decode the secrets of Mother Nature. The enigma of climate change remains.

Applying the Discombobulating Principle to the global warming problem,  nothing explains the level of certainty about AGW theory in the field of climatology that ultimately is not merely, cosmological. AGW theory can never be reduced to a falsifiable hypothesis and therefore it has no practical utility outside of making something that is unimaginably complex appear to be insanely simple: like modeling nature by fitting a least squares trend-line to a haze of points, tra-la.

According to Donna Laframboise, Freeman Dyson (one of the world’s finest scientific minds [link]) says, “[climate] models are useless for predicting what’s going to happen more than five days from now.” CO2 isn’t scary, it’s plant food:

There are huge, non-climate effects of carbon dioxide which are overwhelmingly favourable which are not taken into account. To me, that’s the main issue, that the Earth is actually growing greener. This has actually been measured from satellites. The whole Earth is growing greener as a result of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, so it’s increasing agricultural yields, it’s increasing the forests, it’s increasing all kinds of growth in the biological world. (~Freeman Dyson, see link, ibid.)

Essentially, we’re taxing ourselves to pay government bureaucrats to teach the children a new age religion in public schools — to bring them up with a reverence for the new faith of Climatology. There’s not much that can be done about it other than a Founders’ version of following in the footsteps of Chairman Mao –i.e., defund this government-subsidized Prison of Belief and pack all of the school teachers off to the farms for a thorough reeducation about the importance of CO2 to a healthier world economy — it’s “extremely important,” says Dyson. “It’s enormously beneficial both to food production and to biodiversity, preservation of species, and everything else that’s good.” (See, ibid.)

Western academia’s fear of global warming at home is contributing to local ruin in developing countries where they desperately need more not less energy. It’s also ruining things at home. By traditional standards of validation that are a part of the scientific method the AGW hypothesis – that humanity’s release of CO2 into the atmosphere caused the global warming over the second half of the 20th century – is like following in the footsteps of David Koresh and the apocalyptic death cult of the Branch Davidians who believed they were following the dictates of their god. A society that confuses minister turned lifetime politician Al Gore for science, gives Obama two terms, hands their economic sovereignty over to the UN and flirts with handing over the presidency to Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden, with John Kerry their VP, is on a death march to Greece.

Pushing the idea that humanity is causing the globe to overheat, as a byproduct of simply earning a living (and, it has to stop), has become the biggest backfire in history – a social cascade of beliefs that are identified with a crazy notion that if believed, would paint 97% of academia as hopelessly and forever clueless. Western academia has become the Great Britain of great nations –e.g., once powerful, now a mediocre player at best on the world stage: a believer and purveyor of superstitious pseudo-science as the rest us set off for work in the morning to earn a living by actually having to productively employ our energies to provide value.

Cognitive psychologists consider the availability heuristic [where our feelings about the likelihood of an event simply becomes the result of relying on what most easily comes to mind] to be a key determinant of individual judgment and perception… Our principal claim here is that this heuristic interacts with identifiable social mechanisms to generate availability cascades—social cascades, or simply cascades, through which expressed perceptions trigger chains of individual responses that make these perceptions appear increasingly plausible through their rising availability in public discourse. Availability cascades may be accompanied by counter-mechanisms that keep perceptions consistent with the relevant facts… The resulting mass delusions may last indefinitely, and they may produce wasteful or even detrimental laws and policies. ~Kuran T and Sunstein CR (1999). Availability cascades and risk regulation. Stanford Law Review, 51(4): 683-768.

Hopefully, it’s not already too late to address the insanity of the Left’s social cascade of mass delusion before the dysfunctional social mechanism of global warming alarmism makes a wasteland of our Western culture. Mann’s ‘hockey stick’ science and the continuing parroting of a mythical 97% consensus among scientists that AGW theory is true are examples of a social cascade that help keep the global warming hoax and scare tactics alive. Believing the oceans are warming when there has been no global warming going on 3 decades, depending on the data source used, is another cascade. Learn to ask a Bostonian the right question and you might get the truth –e.g., don’t ask what they think about a dying polar bear but about the January to March, 2015 cold spell.

The use of AGW theory to blame people who work for a living, for causing climate change, has become the key political tool in the Left’s takeover of the American economy. Sensationalizing every weather event and blaming it on human-caused global warming has become a social movement. The underlying motives of the Left’s propaganda about everything that is bad about America explains everything about what they also believe is good, from California’s bullet train that goes nowhere to government-subsidized Teslas that run only on sunlight. What is going on? An official shadow economy now exists with the people’s savings, the stored labor of the productive, earning virtually no interest at all while a company like Tesla Motors Inc. with no earnings or dividends has a $26.17B market cap.

Indeed, predictable social forces may reinforce rather than dampen sensational charges. One such force involves the mass media. The typical newspaper, magazine, or television station incurs a large penalty whenever it falls behind its rivals in reporting “breaking news.” Because a good relative position in the media hierarchy translates into disproportionately large profit differentials, a media outlet that exercises caution in reporting a frightening story may find itself at a huge, possibly irreversible, competitive disadvantage. Facing a prisoner’s dilemma with respect to sensational stories, it has every reason to compete aggressively to report sensationalistic stories as rapidly as possible. (See, Kuran, et al., supra)

The media has become a tool of the Left and irrelevant to true knowledge. It has become profitable to be a facilitator of the official global warming social cascade –e.g., the government assists with a nonsensical EPA fuel economy rating of 89 MPGe that it gives to Tesla based on the immaterial fact that the energy contained in a single gallon of gas is 115,000 Btu or 33.7 kW (and, 38 kW is enough to power a Tesla for 100 miles). It takes more than a gallon of gas to actually generate and then transmit 33.7 kW of electricity to a Tesla owner’s garage. The Tesla’s rating should be more like 34 MPG on an honest comparative basis and that would not even include all the petroleum-driven machinery required to fabricate the batteries made of rare earths from China. A Mercedes E-Class with intelligent clean diesel technology that satisfies even the most stringent regulatory requirements, as in California and Massachusetts, gets 42 MGP on the highway, it costs far less and has more than 3 times the range. That is life in the real world. Government should not use our tax dollars to skew economic decisions when the end result is simply to increase our dependence on the rare earth metals required to fabricate Li-ion batteries.

Sure, sure, a Tesla is fast but do we want government to subsidize the manufacturer of the fastest ever 0-60 automobile for wealthy Californians and crazy Norwegians? Sure too, we can charge-up Tesla’s using hydroelectric power that is kept artificially low for homeowners’ use, that is not further burdened with excise taxes to pay the costs to build and maintain the roads and HOV lanes for electric cars. But, just imagine for a moment the insurmountable regulatory obstacles to be faced and the enormous amounts of diesel fuel that would be required to build the Hoover Dam today, to charge-up our Teslas batteries. The current low cost of electricity is a legacy of our ancestors who obviously were a lot smarter that we are today (they were not afraid to liberate the CO2 required to make the cement that was used to build the Hoover Dam); and besides, 40% of the nation’s electrical grid is actually generated using coal – the evil demon of the Left. Or, we could charge up our Tesla batteries with the energy from heavily subsidized solar or wind power. Our government is telling us unsustainably big whoppers that are a part of the social cascade to keep the government-education bureaucracy in the catbird seat. Meanwhile, GM (government motors) announced Friday it will stop Volt production until 2016 as unsold inventory languishes on lots.

The multi-billion-dollar agenda reflects the Obama Administration’s commitment to using climate change to radically transform America. It reflects a determination to make the climate crisis industry so enormous that no one will be able to tear it down, even as computer models and disaster claims become less and less credible – and even if Republicans control Congress and the White House after 2016 [there exists] … a long list of regulators, researchers, universities, businesses, manufacturers, pressure groups, journalists and politicians with such strong monetary, reputational and authority interests in alarmism that they will defend its tenets and largesse tooth and nail. ~Paul Driessen, “The tip of the climate spending iceberg”

Meanwhile, the sun has gone from a geophysically unique Grand Maximum event during the last half of the 20th century to its current state of anomalous quietus, while academia wishes to remain oblivious to the Sun having gone on hiatus. What is the consensus of opinion as to what constitutes a not too hot and not too cold but just right, subsistence level of economic development, for the world’s inhabitants? With all of the barefaced certainty about global warming amidst all of the demonstrated uncertainty about climate change, someone should tell climatologists – Western science’s arrogantly unerring keepers of pharaoh’s omniscient and omnipotent laws of global warming – that there’s a new god in town.

Why we remain heedless of record-breaking solar activity simply defies logic. What we now know about the sun explains everything about late 20th century warming. As it turns out, “the modern Grand maximum (which occurred during solar cycles 19–23, i.e., 1950-2009),” says Ilya Usoskin, “was a rare or even unique event, in both magnitude and duration, in the past three millennia.” ~Usoskin et al., Evidence for distinct modes of solar activity, A&A 562 (2014)

Solar variations and volcanic eruptions are a wild card. Russian scientists argue that there was a Grand Solar Maximum that peaked in the late 20th century, and that we can expect a Grand Solar Minima (contributing to cooling) to peak around 2060… And finally, we can’t rule out unforeseen surprises. The hiatus in warming in the early 21st century was an unforeseen surprise. ~Judith Curry (House of Rep. Hearing, The President’s U.N. Climate Pledge, 15 Apr 2015)

Wholesale corruption in the government-education industry isn’t going to stop so long as we continue to pay for it. Earning a living by actually providing value to society is hard work and that is not what global warming is all about. Global warming is about pretending you’re saving the world while sipping margaritas on a veranda in Cancun with Al Gore and some Hollywood swells, as their private jets are readied for a quick jaunt to Paris, where nuclear power plants generate the power needed to illuminate the Eiffel Tower into the late night.

These are the folks that wish to send the rest of us back to the horse and buggy and a helluvalotta horsesh*t, especially when you consider that we may actually be in the midst of a cooling trend. The average temperature of the globe shows no global warming despite the fact the temperatures being averaged include a systemic warming bias: all of the official thermometers are located where people live and as a result, the data that is collected is corrupted by the UHI (Urban Heat Island) effect.

According to NASA, “On Sept. 19, 2014, the five-day average of Antarctic sea ice extent exceeded 20 million square kilometers for the first time since 1979.” Isn’t it interesting that, as soon as we were able to accurately measure it — using satellites (beginning in 1979) — global warming stopped. Amazing.

The global warming debate has come full circle. AGW theory of Western science has become a house of cards with the new issue being how best to put an end to the systemic fear and ignorance that typifies the government-education complex. Western academia’s supposed “97% consensus” about the legitimacy of its cause — essentially to put an end to modernity for our own good – is a form of revanchism against the public’s growing skepticism of AGW and the never ending funding of global warming research.

Climate change is nothing more now than a Left vs. right issue. So, we’re having a global warming debate and its not over; and, up to now I question whether any of it has advanced science. So far I see only one obvious conclusion – that it’s a debate with two sides, as follows:

► On one side — populated primarily by Left-thinking folks — is the belief that mere simulation of reality is, reality; and,

► On the other side, the rest of us see simulated reality as nothing but mere shadows on the walls of Plato’s prison cave.

The real question to be debated has become something quite different from whether AGW theory is true or not. Rather than ask if humanity is causing global warming we really need to ask why the Left wants so badly for this to be so, even if it isn’t true. The Left demands that humanity be held guilty of causing the climate to change and so long as that is what they really want, facts won’t matter. Other issues won’t matter.

“Nevertheless,” says Judith Curry (Climate change availability cascade), “climate change has become a grand narrative in which human-caused climate change has become a dominant cause of societal problems… Politicians, activists and journalists have stimulated an ‘availability cascade’ [link] to support alarm about human-caused climate change… Because slowly increasing temperatures don’t seem alarming, the ‘availability entrepreneurs’ push extreme weather events and public health impacts as being caused by human-caused climate change, more of which is in store if we don’t quickly act to cool the planet by reducing fossil fuel emissions.”

Is climate change making us stupid? I fear that the answer is yes. ~Judith Curry (Ibid.)

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The Abyss of Global Warming Hysterics


DC’s Bloom Is Off the Math

It’s official: the NPS announced that 2015’s peak bloom date for Washington DC’s cherry blossoms occurred April 10. What we learned (see previous article [Link]) is that the cherry blossoms defied Pres. Obama’s 8-Apr-2015’s claims of Global Warming by blooming later than the April 4th peak bloom date 1921-2011 average.

Who was it who said we could look to cherry blossoms anyway for evidence of global warming and proof that humanity was heating up the globe with its release of CO2 into the atmosphere during the last half of the 20th century (AGW Theory)? For starters, the National Museum, at the heart of the nations capitol – the Smithsonian said, “the trend toward earlier blooming of flowering plants may be a result of global warming.”

Pregnant with inferences to a looming disaster, a “30-year study of flowering plant species common in the Washington, D.C. metro area,” was released by the Smithsonian along with their pronouncement that a, “trend of earlier flowering is consistent with what we know about the effects of global warming.” Obviously, late-arriving cherry blossoms do not fit the scenario of our coming doom nor that the cherry blossoms provide evidence supporting AGW Theory.

The only thing the Smithsonian has accomplished is living up to what has become our worst expectations about bad government and bad science: both look at the world through the lens of preconceived notions and find what they want to find irrespective of the facts. My point here is not to point to the April 10 peak bloom dates for the last two years as evidence of global cooling, not warming. Rather, it is to show that the government’s math is wacky. Here’s the peak blooming dates since 1921, that they had to work with (Data source: National Park Service Historic Peak Bloom Dates):


1921 March 20 • 1922 April 7 • 1923 April 9
1924 April 13 • 1925 March 27 • 1926 April 11
1927 March 20 • 1928 April 8 • 1929 March 31
1930 April 1 • 1931 April 11 • 1932 April 15
1933 April 9  1934 April 15 1935 April 1
1936 April 7 1937 April 14 1938 March 25
1939 March 30 1940 April 13 1941 April 12
1942 April 5 1943 April 4 1944 April 9
1945 March 20 1946 March 23 1947 April 12
1948 March 28 1949 March 29 1950 April 9
1951 April 6 1952 April 9 1953 March 27
1954 April 6 1955 April 2  1956 April 6
1957 April 8  1958 April 18 1959 April 6
1960 April 14 1961 April 2 1962 April 7
1963 April 3  1964 April 11  1965 April 15
1966 April 5  1967 April 6  1968 March 30
1969 April 9  1970 April 16  1971 April 8
1972 April 11 1973 April 11 1974 April 3
1975 April 3 1976 March 23 1977 March 26
1978 April 12 1979 April 2 1980 April 6
1981 April 3 1982 April 7  1983 April 7
1984 April 3  1985 April 7  1986 April 2
1987 March 28 1988 March 31 1989 Mar 29
1990 March 15  1991 March 29 1992 April 7
1993 April 11 1994 April 5 1995 April 2
1996 April 4 1997 March 26 1998 March 27
1999 April 5 2000 March 17 2001 April 6
2002 April 2 2003 April 2 2004 March 31
2005 April 9 2006 March 30 2007 April 1
2008 March 29 2009 April 1 2010 March 31
2011 March 29 2012 March 20 2013 April 9
2014 April 10 2015 April 10

The real math shows the real story and you don’t have to take my word for it. You can do the math yourself. I can prove to you that I looked at the matter closely –e.g., take a look at the link to the government’s “Data Source” above: notice that the government’s data for years 2003 and 2004 are repeated twice.

Using a thorough method of reckoning I verified the 4-April average bloom date. The government’s date is a correct average from 1921 to 2015, with this one caveat: the average number of days is 94.1 from the beginning of the year so on average the peak bloom falls on 3-Apr on leap years (on every 4th year when February has 29 days) and 4-April on common years.

More interesting is that the Smithsonian should have known that on average nothing has really changed over the years, either before or after 1950, marking the beginning of the last half of the 20th century. Here’s the facts:

Number of Years, 1921-1949: 29
Number of Years, 1950-2015: 66
Average number of days from beginning of year until peak bloom, 1921-1949: 94.3
Average number of days from beginning of year until peak bloom, 1950-2015: 94.0

We’re talking about Washington DC’s cherry blossoms reaching peak bloom on average over the 95 years since 1921 on, April 4th; and, also over the last half of the 20th century – the period during which global warming alarmists blame humanity for heating the globe and incidentally causing cherry blossoms to bloom too early – and, the same average number of days for the 29 years before that, beginning in 1921. Moreover, the trend is not helpful to AGW theorists either with peak bloom dates of, 9-April, 10-­April and 10-April for 2013, 2014 and 2015, respectively.

2015 was the coldest
January through March in the entire record
in the 10 Northeast States and DC ~Joseph D’Aleo, CCM

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How Cool is Global Warming in Washington, DC

Evidence of GW-Peak Bloom

Cherry Blossom Bloom Schedule

Forecasting peak bloom is almost impossible more than 10 days in advance. The cherry trees’ blossom development is dependent on weather conditions, which are inherently variable. National Park Service horticulturists monitor bud development and report the status of the blossoms. The table shows bud development data for Yoshino cherry trees, the most common trees in the park. ~NPS (National Park Service)


Forecast: Peak Bloom this weekend is possible…

UPDATE (9-Apr-15): Puffy White officially occurred on the 8th of April.

Latest WA-DC news: Cherry Blossoms Defy Claims of Global Warming Today (8-Apr-2015) by Pres. Obama…

WA-DC-Some White Blooms-APR-8-2015~2

Note: NPS still expects “peak bloom” to fall between April 11-14.

Note: “The earliest recorded peak bloom,” according to NPS records, “was March 18 (2000). The latest was April 18 (1958)…  Since 1921, the overall average peak bloom date has been April 3.” The current NPS 2015 Peak Bloom Forecasts is as follows: April 11-14. Previous articles about the link between, Washington, DC’s cherry blossoms and global warming, are as follows:

Blooming Blossoms, Global Warming and Academy Awards

What is Higher than Learning? Brian Williams and I were invited to view a gathering of the greatest minds in the Western World last Sunday – the 87th Academy Awards. An overall consensus of opinion was that there are several big problems… Continue reading

Cherry Blossom Time — a Picture in Al Gore’s Bathroom Befuddles Global Warmers

What happens when Al Gore hears that cherry blossoms in Washington will be a bit late this year? Someone put a cone on his neck before he chews a leg off. Oh how the Left crapped itself silly last year… Continue reading


Updated 13-Apr-2015
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Global Warming, Uncle Commie and the Whole Nine Yards

Is it possible

Creating Knowledge Using Only Consensus

There’s much we can accomplish with but a fraction of the facts, although we often must take maximum advantage of every superstition and bias that the ignorant masses have to offer. Moreover, especially as voting season nears, now is the time to pander to the self-serving government bureaucrats and usual Democrat voters who all see what’s in our pockets as their revenues.

Unionized public school teachers, for example, are helping to pick the next president, beginning with electing for a second term a governor with Alzheimer’s who blames the state’s current 3-year drought on global warming. California’s Governor Brown is most famous for saying anything to sell the idea of using public money to build a bullet train to nowhere; and, for giving tax credits to wealthy Tesla buyers. Meanwhile, nothing is  invested in water storage or using energy to desalinate water.

Every climate change junkie is busy putting on their jackboots for the next election. Adding to the increasingly obvious conclusion that global warming is nothing but Left versus right politics – having nothing to do with science – we have on the Left the likes of Al Gore, Howard Stern, Obama, Hillary and the usual Hollywood types from Whoopie to Ronstadt and all of the loons on the View who will wipe their feet on presidential hopefuls on the right like Republican Ted Cruz, a graduate of Princeton and Harvard, because they are global warming deniers.

The big difference between the two political parties — ostensibly representing the Left vs. the right — is that the Left is pro-UN; and, the Left believes in the centralization of planning of society by a big and powerful government. The right, however, believes the power of the people should have preeminence over government; and, the right is therefore, pro-individual liberty not pro-UN; and, the right believes in a smaller not bigger government and more not less personal freedom and responsibility.

The IPCC, like any UN body, is political. The final conclusions are politically driven. ~Dr. Philip Stott

Why are we funding Left-thinking, government-funded schoolteachers in academia to tell us global warming is real but we just can’t find it now because it’s hiding deep in the oceans? We’re all idiots if we allow our thinking to be swayed by the wisdom of academics and Hollywierds or listen to Leftist-inspired government propaganda. When we let government use our lack of understanding to play on our fears about a non-problem like climate change to justify stupidly insane policies, we’re simply acknowledging the fact that we live in a superlatively rich society.

Western society has the means to pay people to engage in nothing but esoteric thinking. Poorer cultures don’t have that luxury, not shielded by the convenience of making choices they don’t really have to live by. But, what are we receiving for our tax dollars, the billion dollars a day that is coming out of our pockets? Like the lawyer tax that eats into the earnings of the productive, we have a climate tax that lowers the net present wealth of the country, robs opportunity and impoverishes millions. Global warming has become a vanity science.

Like Scientology, has global warming become Hollywood and academia’s, prison of belief? Have you heard about scientific research (the Cook, et al. paper) proving there is a consensus of opinion among scientists that humanity is causing global warming? About the supposed 97% consensus, Richard Tol says, “If you want to believe climate researchers are incompetent, biased and secretive, Cook’s paper is an excellent case in point.” Can’t we say the same about all of the defenders of what turns out to be a wholly unscientific study, and all those who parrot the results of a study that is patently absurd on its face, knowing full well such belief, as Hillary likes to say, requires a willing suspension of disbelief? And, who are these defenders and parrots if not solely on the side of the Democrat party, the government bureaucracy, Leftist-thinking school teachers and Uncle Commie?

Although there are large areas of substantive agreement, climate science is far from settled. Witness the dozens of alternative explanations of the 18-year pause in warming of the surface atmosphere…

Their conclusions are about the papers they happened to look at, rather than about the literature. Attempts to replicate their sample failed: a number of papers that should have been analyzed were not, for no apparent reason…

The sample was padded with irrelevant papers. An article about TV coverage on global warming was taken as evidence for global warming. In fact, about three-quarters of the papers counted as endorsements had nothing to say about the subject matter…

Cook’s hand-picked raters disagreed on what a paper was about 33 per cent of the time. In 63 per cent of cases, they disagreed about the message of a paper with the authors of that paper… Cook’s employer argued that releasing rater identities would violate a confidentiality agreement. That agreement does not exist… Time stamps reveal… one of Cook’s raters inspected 675 abstracts within 72 hours, a superhuman ­effort…

This would have been an amusing how-not-to tale for our students… Incompetence was compounded by cover-up and complacency… ~Richard Tol (See Andrew Bolt [97 per cent of climate scientists look shifty])

Sometimes it pays to take a look backward before moving forward, especially in science. If we are looking for problems to solve we’re looking in the wrong place. We need to start by defining the problem and it’s not climate change, it’s the politics of climate change. If the average temperature of the globe really was a problem we would of course want to find out what was causing it. And, we know that: nominally, the sun is the cause. The number of sunspots is a usual sign we use to get an insight into changes in solar activity. Over the last 150 years the correlation between CO2 and temperature is only 22%. However, the correlation with sunspots is 79%. And, when you combine the known effects of solar activity with various known ocean oscillations like the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) and the AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation), the correlation is more than 95% (see -e.g. [Link])

So, who pops up next in the list of Left-thinking fear mongers? None other than Michael Mann of ‘hockey stick’ fame who put up an easily debunked conjecture about global warming stopping the AMO that is sure to result in a real-life replay of the fictional movie, “The Day After Tomorrow” (about New Yorkers burning books in a public library – like elderly folk in the UK in 2010 – to survive a bitter cold). Mann actually points to his debunked ‘hockey stick’ data to justify this conclusion. But, we are not seeing Mr. Mann putting his thumb in the eye of everyone who participated in the charade of Mannian hockey stick science, foisted on the public by the UN’s IPCC. This isn’t Mann’s way of putting his soiled reputation aside and coming clean after all of these years –i.e., owning-up to perpetrating a fraud, admitting global warming is nothing but a hoax and a scare tactic, apologizing for the hoodwink and for diminishing the credibility of science and wasting the country’s scarce resources. Nope. He’s serious, again. The truth? I thought we were talking about Western academia. Face it: we’ve lived long enough to know you do not go to America’s classrooms to find truth.

Telling us the world may end tomorrow, Mann wants us to ignore those who have actually studied the AMO and not tree rings. Ignore those who say the Atlantic its acting normally and as expected. Forget about statisticians, McShane and Wyner who found absolutely no signal whatsoever in the proxy data Michael Mann used to fabricate the apocryphal hockey stick graph to begin with. “It seems,” says Judith Curry ([Link]), “like strip bark bristlecones and Tiljander sediments can tell us about Gulf Stream flow rates, as well as global temperatures. Remarkable.” Mann simply says, One man’s signal is another man’s noise, and looks to Al Gore for another imminent doom docudrama.

Who would have imagined Michael Mann was a natural comedian? What will he say next, global warming is causing marijuana users to become heroin addicts? I am not always sure about who to believe but I’m pretty sure about what to believe –e.g., Climate models and Mannian proxies can be used to support just about any notion a Leftist-thinking, Earth-on-Fire-or-Iceball academic or Uncle Commie with a PhD wants them to support, irrespective of satellite observations or common sense or all of the natural factors that have caused the climate to change over the past thousands of years.

“The sun is the key ingredient to climate… 99.9% of the energy on the earth that goes into the climate system comes from the sun.” ~David Legates (See–e.g., [Link])

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